http://grantland.com/the-triangle/winners-and-losers-in-the-nba-playoffs/
Chicago’s Frontcourt and Nonthreatening Bigs
Another way the league is getting smarter: More teams are flat-out ignoring big guys who can’t shoot or post up. Bogut might have been the first big man to really optimize the defensive three-second rule like this — or at least take things to the extreme. If Omer Asik was at the elbow during the Warriors-Pelicans series, Bogut was somewhere else — doubling Anthony Davis in the post, butting his way into a passing lane, and generally paying Asik no attention.
More teams are following suit, in a few ways. Milwaukee is fine switching wing players onto Joakim Noah, confident a hobbled Noah has no shot to punish them. That has neutered a lot of the Noah handoffs that once powered Chicago’s Derrick Rose–less offense:
Noah has also struggled slipping entry passes to Butler in the post, since Noah’s guy just ignores him to double Butler. You can bet the Cavs, facing the possibility of having to play small more without Kevin Love, have taken note.
There are ways for offenses to counter this. The Bulls have turned over some handoff duty to Taj Gibson, who has enough back-to-the-basket game that teams will at least think twice about switching a smaller player onto him. And if no one is guarding your big man, you can always involve him in a pick-and-roll; his guy will be out of the play, in no position to meet a ball handler darting around a pick.
Chicago’s frontcourt is a giant question mark. Noah is hurting, and Gibson has been in a slump since returning from an ankle injury; he hadn’t attempted a single post-up shot against the Bucks3 before feeling frisky against Jared Dudley in Game 5, per Synergy Sports, and his midrange jumper isn’t the weapon it was last season. Pau Gasol rolls on, but he’s a minus on defense, and it’s unclear if Chicago can survive with a Gasol–Nikola Mirotic front line — or whether Tom Thibodeau will even consider it unless the Bulls are way behind.
Pairing Mirotic with Gibson or Noah would make for a nice offense-defense balance, but none of the three is fully healthy. Thibodeau has played Mirotic much more at small forward since Gibson came back, and while Mirotic can still contribute there, he doesn’t do nearly as much to open up the floor on offense. Mirotic can hang with any of Milwaukee’s big men on defense, and Thibodeau over the last two games has slowly shifted more of Mirotic’s minutes to lineups in which he plays power forward.
There’s an optimal frontcourt rotation in here somewhere. It just doesn’t feel like Chicago will find it.