MAJORITY MAKERS
ALABAMA 2ND DISTRICT: Rep. Bobby Bright has done virtually everything possible to distance himself from national Democrats. But in this Republican-oriented seat, challenger Martha Roby is hammering him by citing his vote for Nancy Pelosi as speaker.
ARIZONA 5TH DISTRICT: In a rough year for Arizona Democrats, two-term Rep. Harry Mitchell faces a rematch with Republican David Schweikert in a GOP-leaning district.
ARKANSAS 1st DISTRICT (OPEN): In a district that gave John McCain 59 percent in 2008, Chad Causey, a former aide to retiring Rep. Marion Berry, has struggled to unite Democrats after a bruising primary.
GEORGIA 8TH DISTRICT: In his GOP-oriented district, Rep. Jim Marshall tends to run weaker in midterm elections, and Republicans are enthusiastic about state Rep. Austin Scott.
ILLINOIS 11TH DISTRICT: It’s no cakewalk for Illinois Democrats this year, and it's especially difficult for a first-termer like Rep. Debbie Halvorson, who has a tougher GOP foe this time around in Adam Kinzinger.
ILLINOIS 14TH DISTRICT: This Aurora-based district, held by the GOP for 70 years (and former House Speaker Denny Hastert) until Rep. Bill Foster won it in a 2008 special election, is up for grabs.
INDIANA 2ND DISTRICT: Rep. Joe Donnelly has sought to emphasize his independence in his Republican-leaning district, but his vote for health care reform has hurt him with his former allies in the anti-abortion movement and the economy is a key issue in his district.
INDIANA 9TH DISTRICT: Rep. Baron Hill ran well ahead of Obama in 2008 in this Republican-oriented, southeastern Indiana-based seat, but his votes for health care reform and especially cap and trade complicate his reelection prospects.
IOWA 3RD DISTRICT: Rep. Leonard Boswell, recently moved into the tossup category by the Cook Political Report, faces state Sen. Brad Zaun without any top-of-the-ticket protection this year.
MICHIGAN 1ST DISTRICT (OPEN): The retirement of Rep. Bart Stupak provides Republicans with an excellent chance of picking up this competitive Upper Peninsula-based seat.
MICHIGAN 7TH DISTRICT: This seat has elected four different members of Congress in the past four election cycles. Freshman Rep. Mark Schauer, who won with less than a majority in 2008, faces a rematch with the former congressman he ousted, Tim Walberg.
NEW HAMPSHIRE 1ST DISTRICT: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter appears to have stabilized after some very poor early polling numbers, but this seat is the more Republican of the state’s two congressional districts. Republicans have a competitive Sept. 14 primary.
NEW HAMPSHIRE 2ND DISTRICT (OPEN): Of the state’s two congressional districts, this is the more Democratic. But the likely GOP nominee in this open seat — left vacant by Rep. Paul Hodes’s Senate run — is former Rep. Charlie Bass, who held the seat for six terms until losing in 2006.
NEW MEXICO 1st DISTRICT: While this Albuquerque-based district has been trending Democratic, for most of its history it’s been held by a Republican, and polls show a close race between freshman Rep. Martin Heinrich and Republican Jon Barela.
NEW YORK 23RD DISTRICT: Rep. Bill Owens, who captured this upstate seat after Republicans fractured in a November 2009 special election, is vying for his first full term in a district that had been in GOP hands for roughly a century.
NEW YORK 24TH DISTRICT: After winning a 2008 reelection squeaker in this Republican-leaning upstate New York seat, Rep. Michael Arcuri is considered one of the top GOP targets in New York — and faces a rematch with Richard Hanna, who nearly defeated him two years ago.
NORTH CAROLINA 8TH DISTRICT: Weak fundraising, lower expected turnout than in 2008 and a bad environment combine to make freshman Rep. Larry Kissell’s reelection bid dicey in this swing district.
OHIO 18TH DISTRICT: Rep. Zack Space’s vote for cap and trade will hurt him in his GOP-leaning, coal country district, and his vote against health care reform has labor promising to sit on its hands in November.
OREGON 5TH DISTRICT: Internal polls for both parties show a competitive race for freshman Rep. Kurt Schrader in a seat that George W. Bush narrowly carried twice.
PENNSYLVANIA 3RD DISTRICT: Republican polling suggests that first-term Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper is struggling in her Erie-based seat, where her health care reform vote has alienated some former allies in the anti-abortion movement.
PENNSYLVANIA 8TH DISTRICT: In this competitive suburban Philadelphia district, second-term Rep. Patrick Murphy faces a rematch with former Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, whom he defeated in 2006 by just over 1,500 votes.
SOUTH CAROLINA 5TH DISTRICT: House Budget Committee chairman John Spratt is defending the House Democrats’ record — and the failure to pass a new budget — in a district that voted for John McCain.
TEXAS 17TH DISTRICT: Rep. Chet Edwards has weathered many storms in his GOP-friendly district — the most Republican district held by any House Democrat — but this will be one of the worst, and he faces well-funded oilman Bill Flores.
WEST VIRGINIA 1ST DISTRICT (OPEN): Republican David McKinley has a clean shot at this seat against state Sen. Mike Oliverio, who is still struggling to unite local Democrats after his victory over veteran Rep. Alan Mollohan in the May primary.
WISCONSIN 7TH DISTRICT (OPEN): Former MTV "Real World" star Sean Duffy could make a splash for House Republicans. But first he must survive a competitive contest with state Sen. Julie Lassa for the seat left open by Rep. Dave Obey’s retirement.
LANDSLIDERS
ARIZONA 1ST DISTRICT: First-term Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick has a big cash advantage in this GOP-leaning district, but immigration, the economy and her health care reform vote are muddying her reelection prospects.
ARIZONA 8TH DISTRICT: Rep. Gabrielle Giffords is well-funded and has diligently worked her Tucson-based swing district. But immigration is a white-hot issue this year in the 8th and her support for the stimulus, cap and trade, health care reform and the 2008 financial industry bailout has left her vulnerable to charges she is hewing too closely to the party line.
CALIFORNIA 11th DISTRICT: Rep. Jerry McNerney won a second term comfortably in 2008, but Bush carried the district twice, voter registration is close to dead even between the parties, and the NRCC has announced it is reserving ad time in this GOP-friendly seat.
CALIFORNIA 47TH DISTRICT: Hispanic and Vietnamese turnout will play a role in determining the outcome between Rep. Loretta Sanchez and challenger Van Tran, a state assemblyman, in a district that voted for Bush in 2004.
COLORADO 3RD DISTRICT: Rep. John Salazar appeared to have locked down this Republican-oriented, Western Slope-based seat after a big 2008 win, but he’s never run in a climate this bad for Democrats.
CONNECTICUT 4th DISTRICT: Powered by Obama’s 60 percent performance, Rep. Jim Himes narrowly ousted moderate GOP Rep. Chris Shays in 2008. Spending, taxes and Wall Street regulation are key issues in this affluent suburban district.
FLORIDA 22ND DISTRICT: Two-term Rep. Ron Klein faces national tea party favorite Allen West in a competitive South Florida-based seat. The Republican’s prolific fundraising is likely to make this one of the most expensive races in the nation.
IDAHO 1ST DISTRICT: Freshman Rep. Walt Minnick has done nearly everything he needs to do to build a firewall. The GOP has been slow to rally around his foe, but the district is overwhelmingly Republican.
KENTUCKY 6TH DISTRICT: Rep. Ben Chandler has had no problems holding this Republican-oriented, Lexington-based district, but his cap-and-trade vote is already causing him problems in a coal-producing state.
MASSACHUSETTS 10TH DISTRICT (OPEN): If Republicans are ever going to break into the all-Democratic, 10-seat Massachusetts House delegation, this is the seat where it will happen. Sen. Scott Brown won 60 percent of the vote here in the January special election; not long after, Rep. Bill Delahunt announced his retirement.
MISSOURI 4TH DISTRICT: It’s widely acknowledged that this conservative-minded seat will go Republican when Rep. Ike Skelton retires. The only question is whether it will happen before then, in the event the popular veteran incumbent is dragged down by his national party. Obama got 38 percent in this district in 2008.
NEW JERSEY 3RD DISTRICT: Rep. John Adler, who represents a marginal, suburban South Jersey district that Republican Gov. Chris Christie carried by a wide margin in 2009, faces former Philadelphia Eagles football star Jon Runyan.
NEW YORK 1ST DISTRICT. The health care reform debate took a toll on Rep. Tim Bishop in a Long Island-based seat with a history of electing Republicans.
NEW YORK 19TH DISTRICT: Rep. John Hall has struggled to keep pace with the fundraising of Republican Nan Hayworth, and his voting record has been criticized as too liberal for a district with a slight GOP voter registration advantage.
NEW YORK 20TH DISTRICT: Rep. Scott Murphy’s 2009 special-election win in one of New York’s most Republican-friendly districts was a setback for the GOP. He’s worked hard to win a full term in November, but his flip from opposition to the health care reform plan to support could prove to be a problem.
NORTH CAROLINA 11TH DISTRICT: Rep. Heath Shuler has a huge cash advantage, and he may need it all this year in a district that hasn’t voted Democratic at the presidential level since 1992.
ALABAMA 2ND DISTRICT: Rep. Bobby Bright has done virtually everything possible to distance himself from national Democrats. But in this Republican-oriented seat, challenger Martha Roby is hammering him by citing his vote for Nancy Pelosi as speaker.
ARIZONA 5TH DISTRICT: In a rough year for Arizona Democrats, two-term Rep. Harry Mitchell faces a rematch with Republican David Schweikert in a GOP-leaning district.
ARKANSAS 1st DISTRICT (OPEN): In a district that gave John McCain 59 percent in 2008, Chad Causey, a former aide to retiring Rep. Marion Berry, has struggled to unite Democrats after a bruising primary.
GEORGIA 8TH DISTRICT: In his GOP-oriented district, Rep. Jim Marshall tends to run weaker in midterm elections, and Republicans are enthusiastic about state Rep. Austin Scott.
ILLINOIS 11TH DISTRICT: It’s no cakewalk for Illinois Democrats this year, and it's especially difficult for a first-termer like Rep. Debbie Halvorson, who has a tougher GOP foe this time around in Adam Kinzinger.
ILLINOIS 14TH DISTRICT: This Aurora-based district, held by the GOP for 70 years (and former House Speaker Denny Hastert) until Rep. Bill Foster won it in a 2008 special election, is up for grabs.
INDIANA 2ND DISTRICT: Rep. Joe Donnelly has sought to emphasize his independence in his Republican-leaning district, but his vote for health care reform has hurt him with his former allies in the anti-abortion movement and the economy is a key issue in his district.
INDIANA 9TH DISTRICT: Rep. Baron Hill ran well ahead of Obama in 2008 in this Republican-oriented, southeastern Indiana-based seat, but his votes for health care reform and especially cap and trade complicate his reelection prospects.
IOWA 3RD DISTRICT: Rep. Leonard Boswell, recently moved into the tossup category by the Cook Political Report, faces state Sen. Brad Zaun without any top-of-the-ticket protection this year.
MICHIGAN 1ST DISTRICT (OPEN): The retirement of Rep. Bart Stupak provides Republicans with an excellent chance of picking up this competitive Upper Peninsula-based seat.
MICHIGAN 7TH DISTRICT: This seat has elected four different members of Congress in the past four election cycles. Freshman Rep. Mark Schauer, who won with less than a majority in 2008, faces a rematch with the former congressman he ousted, Tim Walberg.
NEW HAMPSHIRE 1ST DISTRICT: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter appears to have stabilized after some very poor early polling numbers, but this seat is the more Republican of the state’s two congressional districts. Republicans have a competitive Sept. 14 primary.
NEW HAMPSHIRE 2ND DISTRICT (OPEN): Of the state’s two congressional districts, this is the more Democratic. But the likely GOP nominee in this open seat — left vacant by Rep. Paul Hodes’s Senate run — is former Rep. Charlie Bass, who held the seat for six terms until losing in 2006.
NEW MEXICO 1st DISTRICT: While this Albuquerque-based district has been trending Democratic, for most of its history it’s been held by a Republican, and polls show a close race between freshman Rep. Martin Heinrich and Republican Jon Barela.
NEW YORK 23RD DISTRICT: Rep. Bill Owens, who captured this upstate seat after Republicans fractured in a November 2009 special election, is vying for his first full term in a district that had been in GOP hands for roughly a century.
NEW YORK 24TH DISTRICT: After winning a 2008 reelection squeaker in this Republican-leaning upstate New York seat, Rep. Michael Arcuri is considered one of the top GOP targets in New York — and faces a rematch with Richard Hanna, who nearly defeated him two years ago.
NORTH CAROLINA 8TH DISTRICT: Weak fundraising, lower expected turnout than in 2008 and a bad environment combine to make freshman Rep. Larry Kissell’s reelection bid dicey in this swing district.
OHIO 18TH DISTRICT: Rep. Zack Space’s vote for cap and trade will hurt him in his GOP-leaning, coal country district, and his vote against health care reform has labor promising to sit on its hands in November.
OREGON 5TH DISTRICT: Internal polls for both parties show a competitive race for freshman Rep. Kurt Schrader in a seat that George W. Bush narrowly carried twice.
PENNSYLVANIA 3RD DISTRICT: Republican polling suggests that first-term Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper is struggling in her Erie-based seat, where her health care reform vote has alienated some former allies in the anti-abortion movement.
PENNSYLVANIA 8TH DISTRICT: In this competitive suburban Philadelphia district, second-term Rep. Patrick Murphy faces a rematch with former Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, whom he defeated in 2006 by just over 1,500 votes.
SOUTH CAROLINA 5TH DISTRICT: House Budget Committee chairman John Spratt is defending the House Democrats’ record — and the failure to pass a new budget — in a district that voted for John McCain.
TEXAS 17TH DISTRICT: Rep. Chet Edwards has weathered many storms in his GOP-friendly district — the most Republican district held by any House Democrat — but this will be one of the worst, and he faces well-funded oilman Bill Flores.
WEST VIRGINIA 1ST DISTRICT (OPEN): Republican David McKinley has a clean shot at this seat against state Sen. Mike Oliverio, who is still struggling to unite local Democrats after his victory over veteran Rep. Alan Mollohan in the May primary.
WISCONSIN 7TH DISTRICT (OPEN): Former MTV "Real World" star Sean Duffy could make a splash for House Republicans. But first he must survive a competitive contest with state Sen. Julie Lassa for the seat left open by Rep. Dave Obey’s retirement.
LANDSLIDERS
ARIZONA 1ST DISTRICT: First-term Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick has a big cash advantage in this GOP-leaning district, but immigration, the economy and her health care reform vote are muddying her reelection prospects.
ARIZONA 8TH DISTRICT: Rep. Gabrielle Giffords is well-funded and has diligently worked her Tucson-based swing district. But immigration is a white-hot issue this year in the 8th and her support for the stimulus, cap and trade, health care reform and the 2008 financial industry bailout has left her vulnerable to charges she is hewing too closely to the party line.
CALIFORNIA 11th DISTRICT: Rep. Jerry McNerney won a second term comfortably in 2008, but Bush carried the district twice, voter registration is close to dead even between the parties, and the NRCC has announced it is reserving ad time in this GOP-friendly seat.
CALIFORNIA 47TH DISTRICT: Hispanic and Vietnamese turnout will play a role in determining the outcome between Rep. Loretta Sanchez and challenger Van Tran, a state assemblyman, in a district that voted for Bush in 2004.
COLORADO 3RD DISTRICT: Rep. John Salazar appeared to have locked down this Republican-oriented, Western Slope-based seat after a big 2008 win, but he’s never run in a climate this bad for Democrats.
CONNECTICUT 4th DISTRICT: Powered by Obama’s 60 percent performance, Rep. Jim Himes narrowly ousted moderate GOP Rep. Chris Shays in 2008. Spending, taxes and Wall Street regulation are key issues in this affluent suburban district.
FLORIDA 22ND DISTRICT: Two-term Rep. Ron Klein faces national tea party favorite Allen West in a competitive South Florida-based seat. The Republican’s prolific fundraising is likely to make this one of the most expensive races in the nation.
IDAHO 1ST DISTRICT: Freshman Rep. Walt Minnick has done nearly everything he needs to do to build a firewall. The GOP has been slow to rally around his foe, but the district is overwhelmingly Republican.
KENTUCKY 6TH DISTRICT: Rep. Ben Chandler has had no problems holding this Republican-oriented, Lexington-based district, but his cap-and-trade vote is already causing him problems in a coal-producing state.
MASSACHUSETTS 10TH DISTRICT (OPEN): If Republicans are ever going to break into the all-Democratic, 10-seat Massachusetts House delegation, this is the seat where it will happen. Sen. Scott Brown won 60 percent of the vote here in the January special election; not long after, Rep. Bill Delahunt announced his retirement.
MISSOURI 4TH DISTRICT: It’s widely acknowledged that this conservative-minded seat will go Republican when Rep. Ike Skelton retires. The only question is whether it will happen before then, in the event the popular veteran incumbent is dragged down by his national party. Obama got 38 percent in this district in 2008.
NEW JERSEY 3RD DISTRICT: Rep. John Adler, who represents a marginal, suburban South Jersey district that Republican Gov. Chris Christie carried by a wide margin in 2009, faces former Philadelphia Eagles football star Jon Runyan.
NEW YORK 1ST DISTRICT. The health care reform debate took a toll on Rep. Tim Bishop in a Long Island-based seat with a history of electing Republicans.
NEW YORK 19TH DISTRICT: Rep. John Hall has struggled to keep pace with the fundraising of Republican Nan Hayworth, and his voting record has been criticized as too liberal for a district with a slight GOP voter registration advantage.
NEW YORK 20TH DISTRICT: Rep. Scott Murphy’s 2009 special-election win in one of New York’s most Republican-friendly districts was a setback for the GOP. He’s worked hard to win a full term in November, but his flip from opposition to the health care reform plan to support could prove to be a problem.
NORTH CAROLINA 11TH DISTRICT: Rep. Heath Shuler has a huge cash advantage, and he may need it all this year in a district that hasn’t voted Democratic at the presidential level since 1992.
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