How the House would be won

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MAJORITY MAKERS

ALABAMA 2ND DISTRICT: Rep. Bobby Bright has done virtually everything possible to distance himself from national Democrats. But in this Republican-oriented seat, challenger Martha Roby is hammering him by citing his vote for Nancy Pelosi as speaker.

ARIZONA 5TH DISTRICT: In a rough year for Arizona Democrats, two-term Rep. Harry Mitchell faces a rematch with Republican David Schweikert in a GOP-leaning district.

ARKANSAS 1st DISTRICT (OPEN): In a district that gave John McCain 59 percent in 2008, Chad Causey, a former aide to retiring Rep. Marion Berry, has struggled to unite Democrats after a bruising primary.

GEORGIA 8TH DISTRICT: In his GOP-oriented district, Rep. Jim Marshall tends to run weaker in midterm elections, and Republicans are enthusiastic about state Rep. Austin Scott.

ILLINOIS 11TH DISTRICT: It’s no cakewalk for Illinois Democrats this year, and it's especially difficult for a first-termer like Rep. Debbie Halvorson, who has a tougher GOP foe this time around in Adam Kinzinger.

ILLINOIS 14TH DISTRICT: This Aurora-based district, held by the GOP for 70 years (and former House Speaker Denny Hastert) until Rep. Bill Foster won it in a 2008 special election, is up for grabs.

INDIANA 2ND DISTRICT: Rep. Joe Donnelly has sought to emphasize his independence in his Republican-leaning district, but his vote for health care reform has hurt him with his former allies in the anti-abortion movement and the economy is a key issue in his district.

INDIANA 9TH DISTRICT: Rep. Baron Hill ran well ahead of Obama in 2008 in this Republican-oriented, southeastern Indiana-based seat, but his votes for health care reform and especially cap and trade complicate his reelection prospects.

IOWA 3RD DISTRICT: Rep. Leonard Boswell, recently moved into the tossup category by the Cook Political Report, faces state Sen. Brad Zaun without any top-of-the-ticket protection this year.

MICHIGAN 1ST DISTRICT (OPEN): The retirement of Rep. Bart Stupak provides Republicans with an excellent chance of picking up this competitive Upper Peninsula-based seat.

MICHIGAN 7TH DISTRICT: This seat has elected four different members of Congress in the past four election cycles. Freshman Rep. Mark Schauer, who won with less than a majority in 2008, faces a rematch with the former congressman he ousted, Tim Walberg.

NEW HAMPSHIRE 1ST DISTRICT: Rep. Carol Shea-Porter appears to have stabilized after some very poor early polling numbers, but this seat is the more Republican of the state’s two congressional districts. Republicans have a competitive Sept. 14 primary.

NEW HAMPSHIRE 2ND DISTRICT (OPEN): Of the state’s two congressional districts, this is the more Democratic. But the likely GOP nominee in this open seat — left vacant by Rep. Paul Hodes’s Senate run — is former Rep. Charlie Bass, who held the seat for six terms until losing in 2006.

NEW MEXICO 1st DISTRICT: While this Albuquerque-based district has been trending Democratic, for most of its history it’s been held by a Republican, and polls show a close race between freshman Rep. Martin Heinrich and Republican Jon Barela.

NEW YORK 23RD DISTRICT: Rep. Bill Owens, who captured this upstate seat after Republicans fractured in a November 2009 special election, is vying for his first full term in a district that had been in GOP hands for roughly a century.

NEW YORK 24TH DISTRICT: After winning a 2008 reelection squeaker in this Republican-leaning upstate New York seat, Rep. Michael Arcuri is considered one of the top GOP targets in New York — and faces a rematch with Richard Hanna, who nearly defeated him two years ago.

NORTH CAROLINA 8TH DISTRICT: Weak fundraising, lower expected turnout than in 2008 and a bad environment combine to make freshman Rep. Larry Kissell’s reelection bid dicey in this swing district.

OHIO 18TH DISTRICT: Rep. Zack Space’s vote for cap and trade will hurt him in his GOP-leaning, coal country district, and his vote against health care reform has labor promising to sit on its hands in November.

OREGON 5TH DISTRICT: Internal polls for both parties show a competitive race for freshman Rep. Kurt Schrader in a seat that George W. Bush narrowly carried twice.

PENNSYLVANIA 3RD DISTRICT: Republican polling suggests that first-term Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper is struggling in her Erie-based seat, where her health care reform vote has alienated some former allies in the anti-abortion movement.

PENNSYLVANIA 8TH DISTRICT: In this competitive suburban Philadelphia district, second-term Rep. Patrick Murphy faces a rematch with former Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, whom he defeated in 2006 by just over 1,500 votes.

SOUTH CAROLINA 5TH DISTRICT: House Budget Committee chairman John Spratt is defending the House Democrats’ record — and the failure to pass a new budget — in a district that voted for John McCain.

TEXAS 17TH DISTRICT: Rep. Chet Edwards has weathered many storms in his GOP-friendly district — the most Republican district held by any House Democrat — but this will be one of the worst, and he faces well-funded oilman Bill Flores.

WEST VIRGINIA 1ST DISTRICT (OPEN): Republican David McKinley has a clean shot at this seat against state Sen. Mike Oliverio, who is still struggling to unite local Democrats after his victory over veteran Rep. Alan Mollohan in the May primary.

WISCONSIN 7TH DISTRICT (OPEN): Former MTV "Real World" star Sean Duffy could make a splash for House Republicans. But first he must survive a competitive contest with state Sen. Julie Lassa for the seat left open by Rep. Dave Obey’s retirement.

LANDSLIDERS

ARIZONA 1ST DISTRICT: First-term Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick has a big cash advantage in this GOP-leaning district, but immigration, the economy and her health care reform vote are muddying her reelection prospects.

ARIZONA 8TH DISTRICT: Rep. Gabrielle Giffords is well-funded and has diligently worked her Tucson-based swing district. But immigration is a white-hot issue this year in the 8th and her support for the stimulus, cap and trade, health care reform and the 2008 financial industry bailout has left her vulnerable to charges she is hewing too closely to the party line.

CALIFORNIA 11th DISTRICT: Rep. Jerry McNerney won a second term comfortably in 2008, but Bush carried the district twice, voter registration is close to dead even between the parties, and the NRCC has announced it is reserving ad time in this GOP-friendly seat.

CALIFORNIA 47TH DISTRICT: Hispanic and Vietnamese turnout will play a role in determining the outcome between Rep. Loretta Sanchez and challenger Van Tran, a state assemblyman, in a district that voted for Bush in 2004.

COLORADO 3RD DISTRICT: Rep. John Salazar appeared to have locked down this Republican-oriented, Western Slope-based seat after a big 2008 win, but he’s never run in a climate this bad for Democrats.

CONNECTICUT 4th DISTRICT: Powered by Obama’s 60 percent performance, Rep. Jim Himes narrowly ousted moderate GOP Rep. Chris Shays in 2008. Spending, taxes and Wall Street regulation are key issues in this affluent suburban district.

FLORIDA 22ND DISTRICT: Two-term Rep. Ron Klein faces national tea party favorite Allen West in a competitive South Florida-based seat. The Republican’s prolific fundraising is likely to make this one of the most expensive races in the nation.

IDAHO 1ST DISTRICT: Freshman Rep. Walt Minnick has done nearly everything he needs to do to build a firewall. The GOP has been slow to rally around his foe, but the district is overwhelmingly Republican.

KENTUCKY 6TH DISTRICT: Rep. Ben Chandler has had no problems holding this Republican-oriented, Lexington-based district, but his cap-and-trade vote is already causing him problems in a coal-producing state.

MASSACHUSETTS 10TH DISTRICT (OPEN): If Republicans are ever going to break into the all-Democratic, 10-seat Massachusetts House delegation, this is the seat where it will happen. Sen. Scott Brown won 60 percent of the vote here in the January special election; not long after, Rep. Bill Delahunt announced his retirement.

MISSOURI 4TH DISTRICT: It’s widely acknowledged that this conservative-minded seat will go Republican when Rep. Ike Skelton retires. The only question is whether it will happen before then, in the event the popular veteran incumbent is dragged down by his national party. Obama got 38 percent in this district in 2008.

NEW JERSEY 3RD DISTRICT: Rep. John Adler, who represents a marginal, suburban South Jersey district that Republican Gov. Chris Christie carried by a wide margin in 2009, faces former Philadelphia Eagles football star Jon Runyan.

NEW YORK 1ST DISTRICT. The health care reform debate took a toll on Rep. Tim Bishop in a Long Island-based seat with a history of electing Republicans.

NEW YORK 19TH DISTRICT: Rep. John Hall has struggled to keep pace with the fundraising of Republican Nan Hayworth, and his voting record has been criticized as too liberal for a district with a slight GOP voter registration advantage.

NEW YORK 20TH DISTRICT: Rep. Scott Murphy’s 2009 special-election win in one of New York’s most Republican-friendly districts was a setback for the GOP. He’s worked hard to win a full term in November, but his flip from opposition to the health care reform plan to support could prove to be a problem.

NORTH CAROLINA 11TH DISTRICT: Rep. Heath Shuler has a huge cash advantage, and he may need it all this year in a district that hasn’t voted Democratic at the presidential level since 1992.
 
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OHIO 13TH DISTRICT: Rep. Betty Sutton has won and held this Democratic-oriented district with ease, but self-funding Republican Tom Ganley’s spending is making it close.

PENNSYLVANIA 4TH DISTRICT: Rep. Jason Altmire voted against the health care reform plan and is running ads stressing his independence from his party. While he easily dispatched former Rep. Melissa Hart in a 2008 rematch, this is a Republican-trending district that voted for John McCain by 11 percentage points.

PENNSYLVANIA 10TH DISTRICT: Rep. Chris Carney has crafted an independent image, but this is a Republican-oriented district. Republican Tom Marino has been a weak fundraiser, but this is the kind of year where it might not matter as much.

PENNSYLVANIA 12TH DISTRICT: Rep. Mark Critz, who won a closely contested 2010 special election to succeed the late Rep. John Murtha, faces a rematch with Republican Tim Burns for a full term.

TENNESSEE 4TH DISTRICT: Rep. Lincoln Davis has shown few signs of weakness since winning the seat in 2002, but this solidly Republican district won’t be easy to hold in the current climate.

TEXAS 23RD DISTRICT: Rep. Ciro Rodriguez has worked to expand beyond his San Antonio base in this sprawling district, the largest in Texas. Republican Quico Canseco’s ability to win Hispanic votes in November will be the key here.

VIRGINIA 9TH DISTRICT: Veteran Rep. Rick Boucher, who represents Virginia’s coal fields, looks to have his toughest race since his first reelection in 1984, largely because of his support for the House energy bill.

WASHINGTON 2ND DISTRICT: Rep. Rick Larsen failed to inspire confidence by finishing behind Republican John Koster in the state’s Aug. 17 all-party primary. Larsen narrowly defeated Koster in 2000, 50 percent to 46 percent.

WISCONSIN 8TH DISTRICT: Until Rep. Steve Kagen’s 2006 victory, Republicans held this Green Bay-based seat for most of the previous three decades. And Bush carried the district twice before Barack Obama won with 54 percent.

SEATS ON THE BUBBLE

COLORADO 7TH DISTRICT: Rep. Ed Perlmutter

CONNECTICUT 5TH DISTRICT: Rep. Chris Murphy

GEORGIA 2ND DISTRICT: Rep. Sanford Bishop

GEORGIA 12TH DISTRICT: Rep. John Barrow

ILLINOIS 17TH DISTRICT: Rep. Phil Hare

KENTUCKY 3RD DISTRICT: Rep. John Yarmuth

MICHIGAN 9TH DISTRICT: Rep. Gary Peters

MINNESOTA 1ST DISTRICT: Rep. Tim Walz

MISSOURI 3RD DISTRICT: Rep. Russ Carnahan

NEW YORK 13TH DISTRICT: Rep. Mike McMahon

NEW YORK 25TH DISTRICT: Rep. Dan Maffei

VIRGINIA 11TH DISTRICT: Rep. Gerry Connolly

WEST VIRGINIA 3RD DISTRICT: Rep. Nick Rahall

Alexander Burns, Kasie Hunt, Alex Isenstadt, Martin Kady II and Jessica Taylor contributed to this report.

© 2010 Capitol News Company, LLC
 
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The Republicans have nominated a bunch of extremists that are way out of line with average American voters on basic issues. Yet, most of these candidates are running neck-and-neck or ahead of incumbent mainstream Democrats. So the outcome is going to be based on if the Democrats have what it takes to hold on to some tight races.

All reliable data shows that Americans don't like the Republicans, yet an astounding number of races are advantage GOP. The ball is in the Democrats' court, but it doesn't look like there's any good play possible.
 
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realistically, isnt this expected though? isnt it common knowledge that the party NOT in the white house usually wins the midterms? wouldnt the bigger story be not that the Rs won, but that they lost?
 
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earth two superman;1245132 said:
realistically, isnt this expected though? isnt it common knowledge that the party NOT in the white house usually wins the midterms? wouldnt the bigger story be not that the Rs won, but that they lost?

Its expected in the sense that the economy is bad and the overall mood of the country is poor. But the a split government isn't inevitable just because the Democrats have the White House. After such a huge victory in 2008, to come close to losing it all two years later is definitely not the norm.
 
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earth two superman;1245132 said:
realistically, isnt this expected though? isnt it common knowledge that the party NOT in the white house usually wins the midterms? wouldnt the bigger story be not that the Rs won, but that they lost?

They gotta be expected to take some seats back, but turning 40+ districts in one election is pretty stunning, and the Republicans are doing this without a face of cohesive leadership and no message.

Even in the past, there was a face of the party and a message when power shifts occurred for midterm elections.

2006 Hillary was looking strong and presidential to the Democratic base, and their message, strengthened by Bush's increasingly bad public image, was that after the false premises for the iraq war, botched handling of katrina highlighted by cronyism, congressional scandals on the GOP side being swept under the rug, and so on, the biggest blow voters could deal to corruption in dc was to end the partnership of a Bush whitehouse and a GOP-controlled congress.

Likewise, in 1994, Republicans took over the House with Newt Gingrich in the spotlight, and the Contract with America clearly outlining their message.
 
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Silver linings for the Democrats:

A) Everyone's so expecting a GOP takeover, if they fall short by 1 seat, it'll be interpreted as a FAIL for Republicans by many

B) Their centerpiece campaign promise - "We'll repeal health care!" - is super-not-happening, period

C) Many observers expect a GOP house to help Obama in the long run like it helped Clinton

D) Their born-again anti-spending revival would inevitably lead a GOP house to retarded, self-damaging actions; see C)

E) Suprisingly, Republican campaign money ain't poppin like you'd assume it would be in a bad year for Dems

F) as in every election, there's the slim chance of the infamous October Surprise totally shuffling the deck. Such as....major bizzare Republican scandal, magic economic good news, Iranian troops being stupid enough to lick shots at the U.S Navy in the Persian Gulf, Obama assassination attempt......

I'm waiting to see what Nate Silver projects, personally. Right now he's got GOP chances of taking the Senate @ 25%, and that's assuming Sharon Angle's batshit insane ass pulls it off. (Reid's actually been winning the polls for months now) Also, Mike Castle (Delaware) might lose to his Tea Party challenger who literally does 20 points worse in the polls against the Democrat.
 
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Swiffness!;1245427 said:
C) Many observers expect a GOP house to help Obama in the long run like it helped Clinton

If by "helped" Clinton he means helped him abandon all worthwhile things from his agenda, declare "the era of Big Govenrment is over" .
After that he told the House Leadsership to do whatever they want. Then, with his legislative schedule covered for e day, he went to the oval office ans got his dick sucked. It's ok, clinton worked hard and later into the night sometimes.

So anyway, how doesi it really help
 
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shootemwon;1245457 said:
If by "helped" Clinton he means helped him abandon all worthwhile things from his agenda, declare "the era of Big Govenrment is over" .
After that he told the House Leadsership to do whatever they want. Then, with his legislative schedule covered for e day, he went to the oval office ans got his dick sucked. It's ok, clinton worked hard and later into the night sometimes.

So anyway, how doesi it really help

Yeah but that shit with the Gov't shutdown and Gingrich threatening to let the United States DEFAULT on the national debt hurt them bad. Is it really hard to imagine a dumber, more extreme, Tea Party congress shooting itself in the foot?

Plus, in a macro sense, when the minority holds the House and fights the WH, they both act in ways that tend to reinforce the status quo. I've read that analysis in several places and I've even heard diehard racist Republicans straight up say that a GOP house would "save" Obama's re-election chances.

We'll find out either way.

Oh and it should be noted that Clinton was getting his sucked while running for re-election, which is pretty muhfucking amazing when you think about it. I firmly believe that when he had Monica under the desk while talking to Arafat he was like "LOL, you want summa dis Yasser?".
 
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