What are the odds?

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Today there will be a total solar eclipse making its way all across the continental US, from Oregon to South Carolina. Unfortunately I could not logistically travel to see it first hand. I’ll have to wait for 2024, when another total solar eclipse will hit America, making a trail from Texas through upstate New York. Here in CT we will get 75% coverage, which will be cool but nothing (from what I hear) like seeing totality.

Eclipses are one of the testaments to the power of science. We can predict them with incredible accuracy, because we have worked out in tiny detail how planetary orbits work. We can make careful observation and combine that with accurate theories about how the universe works and mathematics to make calculations, and predict these celestial events far into the future.

Some people, however, choose to see the eclipse as a testament to the existence of God. I first heard this argument when I was in college – a friend of mine who was also a fundamentalist Christian essentially ridiculed me for thinking that eclipses were just coincidence. The hand of God was clearly at work.

Eric Metaxas, who has a history of seeing God in the details of reality (as I have discussed before), has also unsurprisingly seized upon this argument. He writes:

What might be the odds of this just happening randomly? Almost all the planets in our solar system have no moons or many moons (Jupiter has 60) of incredibly varying sizes. So this sort of thing doesn’t happen anywhere else in our solar system. But our planet has just one moon that happens to be just the right size and just the right distance from Earth.

I found the precision necessary for all of this unbelievable. The more I thought about it, the more I knew that there was no way this could be a mere coincidence. It seemed almost planned. In fact, it seemed utterly planned, as all things of such precision must be.


Must it? It is an amazing coincidence that the apparent size of the moon and the sun as viewed from Earth overlap. The size of both vary over time. The apparent size of the sun varies by 3.3% and the moon by 10% because the orbits of the earth and moon are slightly elliptical. So they are not precisely the same size – their variability overlaps.

The apparent size of the moon has also been changing over historical time. The moon was once much closer to the Earth. It moves away from the Earth by 3.8 centimeters per year due to tidal forces which also have locked the moon’s rotation to the Earth, and will one day lock the Earth’s rotation to the moon. So we happen to be living in a window of about 100 million years where their apparent sizes overlap.

The fact that the sun and moon are in the same plane is not a coincidence at all. That is how solar systems develop. Most of the objects in the solar system are in roughly the same plane.

So it is actually not that much of a coincidence. Many planets have large moons like our own. If we think about 100 million years vs a 10 billion year lifespan of our solar system, that is 1/100 or 1%. That is small but not that small. Further, we are much more likely to be living in the middle of our sun’s lifespan, not at the very beginning or end, so the actual odds are greater than 1% of us falling within that window.

Metaxas is also committing the Texas Sharpshooter fallacy. There are many astronomical details of the universe, if we consider the size, position, orbits, and arrangements of all the bodies in our solar system. We could have had multiple moons that eclipse each other. We can also consider the apparent position of stars as viewed from Earth. We could also have had naked-eye viewable phenomena, like nebula, satellite galaxies, or globular clusters. Our sun may have been outside the plane of our galaxy, with a view of the spiral disk face-on.

Therefore, we cannot consider only the odds of having a moon and living in a window in which that moon eclipses our sun. We have to consider the odds of there being any astronomical coincidence – any at all. Metaxas is deciding after the fact that this one coincidence is evidence of God, but he could have said that about any cosmic coincidence (and he does). There is no reason a priori to conclude that eclipses specifically are evidence of divine tinkering.

So – what are the odds that, from the perspective of earth, there would be some (any) astronomical coincidence? It’s impossible to calculate such odds. But the fact that a 1% or so coincidence does exist hardly requires postulating divine interference, and certainly is not proof of God.

When you experience the eclipse today (if you are in its path) rejoice about the predictive power of our science. And be safe – everyone probably knows this now, but it is worth repeating. Don’t look at the sun at anytime during the eclipse. The exposed part of the sun can still damage your retina. If you are using lenses, make sure they are approved and actually work.

Happy eclipse day.
 
other planets w stars and moons have eclipses...

what about those 'signs' on those planets? who are they meant for?
 
sky-is-falling.jpg
 
DoUwant2go2Heaven;c-9949567 said:
"It’s been said that, on average, a total solar eclipse can be seen from the same place only once every 375 years. The methodology used by whoever calculated this number is unknown and it’s debatable whether there can even be a definitive methodology for such a calculation. For instance, how many points on Earth do you use to arrive at an average number of years? But regardless of the math, there’s no denying the fact that a total solar eclipse is a relatively rare event for any given place. So, for an area to get not one, but two, total solar eclipses in just seven years is a truly remarkable occurrence!" -
https://www.google.com/amp/s/nation...-two-total-solar-eclipses-in-seven-years/amp/

even at those odds, it still happens.. in the reality of science, it's truly nothing special... just to our minds perceive it to be amazing...

So would every 375 yrs be a sign? what about the last time this happened? what sign was this then? and before that? and before that?
 
VIBE;c-9949576 said:
other planets w stars and moons have eclipses...

what about those 'signs' on those planets? who are they meant for?

God is speaking to the creatures He made in His image and after His likeness.

An evil and adulterous generation seeks after a sign, but there shall no sign be given to it except the sign of the prophet Jonah!

Do you know what happened in Nineveh in 763 BC?

A total solar eclipse occurred on June 15 of that year. It happened about 2 months before Jonah arrived to preach to the ninevites that they had 40 days to repent or else they would be judged!

This is recorded HISTORY! Look it up!

A total solar eclipse occurred over Nineveh before Jonah arrived! That is why the WHOLE city repented when Jonah came to preach! God had given them a sign in the heavens and then sent a prophet to warn them of judgment to come!

The sign of the prophet Jonah appears over America today! 40 days from today is Yom Kippur!

Unless all of America turns to God like the ancient people of Nineveh did, from President Trump on down to you and me and everybody else, Americas judgment will be sealed on Yom Kippur!

When it is executed? I don't know! But the Day of the Lord is near! And it shall come like a destruction from the Almighty! Amen!

 
science illiteracy and religion played a big part in this years political climate... I have no tolerance for religion anymore..

although, debating/arguing is stupid pointless.. we are gonna run circles here..
 
VIBE;c-9949593 said:
DoUwant2go2Heaven;c-9949567 said:
"It’s been said that, on average, a total solar eclipse can be seen from the same place only once every 375 years. The methodology used by whoever calculated this number is unknown and it’s debatable whether there can even be a definitive methodology for such a calculation. For instance, how many points on Earth do you use to arrive at an average number of years? But regardless of the math, there’s no denying the fact that a total solar eclipse is a relatively rare event for any given place. So, for an area to get not one, but two, total solar eclipses in just seven years is a truly remarkable occurrence!" -
https://www.google.com/amp/s/nation...-two-total-solar-eclipses-in-seven-years/amp/

even at those odds, it still happens.. in the reality of science, it's truly nothing special... just to our minds perceive it to be amazing...

So would every 375 yrs be a sign? what about the last time this happened? what sign was this then? and before that? and before that?

True science is amazing. It reveals the awesomeness of God! Hallelujah!

The last time an eclipse like the one we have today occurred happened in 1776!

Do you know what happened in 1776 in America?
 
VIBE;c-9949607 said:
science illiteracy and religion played a big part in this years political climate... I have no tolerance for religion anymore..

although, debating/arguing is stupid pointless.. we are gonna run circles here..

1. No one is debating or arguing. Well at least I'm not.

2. I'm presenting truth.

3. No one is talking religion.

4. I'm talking truth.

5. You either accept the truth or reject the truth.

Amen.
 
DoUwant2go2Heaven;c-9949616 said:
VIBE;c-9949593 said:
DoUwant2go2Heaven;c-9949567 said:
"It’s been said that, on average, a total solar eclipse can be seen from the same place only once every 375 years. The methodology used by whoever calculated this number is unknown and it’s debatable whether there can even be a definitive methodology for such a calculation. For instance, how many points on Earth do you use to arrive at an average number of years? But regardless of the math, there’s no denying the fact that a total solar eclipse is a relatively rare event for any given place. So, for an area to get not one, but two, total solar eclipses in just seven years is a truly remarkable occurrence!" -
https://www.google.com/amp/s/nation...-two-total-solar-eclipses-in-seven-years/amp/

even at those odds, it still happens.. in the reality of science, it's truly nothing special... just to our minds perceive it to be amazing...

So would every 375 yrs be a sign? what about the last time this happened? what sign was this then? and before that? and before that?

True science is amazing. It reveals the awesomeness of God! Hallelujah!

The last time an eclipse like the one we have today occurred happened in 1776!

Do you know what happened in 1776 in America?

never happened
 
"it happened in 1776... do you know what happened in 1776?"

yup, not an eclipse, solar or lunar..

you either are misinformed or you misread that...

 
babelipsss;c-9949618 said:
So...40 days from now the world will end? Time to party like a rockstar?

No

No

No

No

No

I never said that! How do people take the words I say and fudge it so badly????

No wonder the Bible is so misinterpreted by so many!

Where did I ever say the world was ending in 40 days?

I said Yom Kippur happens 40 days from today! It is the Day of atonement! The most holiest day of the year! It is the day when God opens up the books of life and death.

Those who God has marked for death will die in the upcoming year and those who God has marked to live will live the next year.

The season that we are in right now is called "Teshuva" which means repentance! It starts on Elul 1 on the Hebrew calendar. Thus this time, the next 40 days, leading up to Yom Kippur is a time when people repent from their sins and make amends with their neighbors in order to find mercy on Yom Kippur!
http://www.hebrew4christians.com/Holidays/Fall_Holidays/Yom_Kippur/yom_kippur.html

If anyone is interested that is a good sight to understand the Hebrew roots of our faith, if you are a believer. Amen.
 
VIBE;c-9949637 said:
"it happened in 1776... do you know what happened in 1776?"

yup, not an eclipse, solar or lunar..

you either are misinformed or you misread that...

Yes I should have said "before" 1776 was the last time an eclipse like the one occurring today happens over the USA.

"The August 2017 eclipse will be the first with a path of totality crossing the Pacific and Atlantic coasts of the U.S. since 1918. Also, its path of totality makes landfall exclusively within the United States, making it the first such eclipse since the country's independence in 1776. (The path of totality of the eclipse of June 13, 1257, was the last to make landfall exclusively on lands currently part of the United States.[19])" -wiki

This only confirms the premise of the rarity of total solar eclipses happening over mainlands instead of out over the water which usually happens. Since the earth is mostly water anyways. Hallelujah!
 
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Still SMH @babelipsss!!!

I still can't believe how you took what I said and proclaimed that the world was ending in 40 days!

It's things like that which start rumors and then it turns into people forsaking God when they run with the rumour and it doesn't come to pass!

People lose whatever faith they had in God based on a lie that had twisted the original Meaning which was truth!

I'm sick to my stomach! What a classic case of misconstruing words! My goodness!
 
"I should've said before.."

before? you tried to make a false claim to correlate w your view so you can make a point about signs, don't squirm out of that now..

This only confirms the premise of the rarity of total solar eclipses happening over mainlands instead of out over the water which usually happens. Since the earth is mostly water anyways. Hallelujah!

The National Eclipse will be a “rare” event. The word “rare” is a relative term. Its meaning depends on the context in which it’s used. A total solar eclipse isn’t a particularly rare event when you consider that one happens someplace on Earth about once every 18 months. If you wanted to, and if you had the resources to do so, you could see dozens of them in a lifetime. What most people would consider rare is the occurrence of a total solar eclipse for any one spot on Earth. It’s been calculated that, on average, a total solar eclipse can be seen from the same place only once every 375 years, although the time span can also be much more or much less. So, will the National Eclipse be a “rare” event? Not for the planet. But maybe for your city. Let’s just try to keep things in perspective.

The National Eclipse will be the first total solar eclipse in the U.S. since 1918. This is a fallacy that’s been spreading online by way of several recent news stories. Of course, this spawns more news stories, and on and on we go. In fact, the National Eclipse on August 21 will be the sixteenth total solar eclipse visible in the U.S. since 1918, ten of which occurred in the contiguous 48 states. So, where does the confusion come from and what does 1918 have to do with anything? 1918 was the last time a total solar eclipse crossed the U.S. from coast to coast, which the National Eclipse will also do. This has led to a lot of talk about the 1918 eclipse in particular, and some people have jumped to the conclusion that that eclipse was also the last one to occur in the U.S. Not so. Just ask those who witnessed totality in the Hawaiian Islands in 1991 or in the Pacific Northwest in 1979.
https://nationaleclipse.wordpress.com/2017/04/04/debunking-the-national-eclipse/
 
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from the same article, which backs up what you re-searched and re-read to correct your statement..

The National Eclipse will be the first total solar eclipse exclusive to the U.S. since 1776. Okay, maybe we’re splitting hairs with this one, because this statement is essentially correct. But the way it’s often worded can be misleading. One of the most exciting things about the National Eclipse, and one of the reasons why it’s called the National Eclipse in the first place, is the fact that it will be the first eclipse with a path of totality that doesn’t touch any other country other than the United States since before there even was a United States. You have to look all the way back to 1257 to find another total eclipse that was exclusive to present-day U.S. soil. But there was no total solar eclipse in the U.S. in 1776. There wasn’t one anywhere in the world that year. A better way to word this claim would be to say that the National Eclipse will be the first total solar eclipse exclusive to the U.S. since before the nation’s founding in 1776. Come to think of it, if there had been a total eclipse over the 13 original colonies in 1776, the symbolism it might have suggested to the patriots could very well have become part of the American historical tradition.
 
b'mer...;c-9949602 said:
https://youtu.be/Q5_P2F2o01c

B) B) B) B)

I personally don't believe in a rapture, at least not the popular theory that's always mentioned. It was probably created with good intentions but it is definitely a huge misunderstanding.

The scripture that's usually quoted is being completely taken out of context, Thessalonians 4 13-18.

Peter was speaking to a group of Christians who were afraid that their loved ones would be forgotten when Christ returns. Peter was simply answering a question that the dead will not be forgotten. In fact, the dead will be gathered up by Christ first, then He will get those who are still alive.

There is absolutely no mention of a rapture where Christians are spared. This misunderstanding is dangerous because it gives Christians a false sense of security. True believers will actually have it worse. Revelation 13: 7 tells us

"It was given power to wage war against God's holy people and to conquer them. And it was given authority over every tribe, people, language and nation"

I'm not sure what gives Christians this idea that they will be spared from the hardships that are to come. Since the beginning, God's people have been persecuted for their beliefs that will not change.

John 16:33 "In the world you have tribulation; but be of good cheer, I have overcome the world"
 

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