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Move over, Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.
There's a fresh challenger to claim the, well, mythical throne reserved for the NFL's best quarterback: Aaron Rodgers.
"He had such a great season last year," NFL guru Gil Brandt says of the Green Bay Packers' Super Bowl-winning star. "I don't know if anybody had a better three playoff games than Rodgers did on the way to the Super Bowl.
"And, hey, there's always a changing of the guard at quarterback."
It's clear that winning a Super Bowl has intrinsic value. In a poll of USA TODAY's NFL staff, Rodgers ranked second among the league's best passers with 63 points — two shy of Brady, the three-time Super Bowl champion. Manning ranked third with 56 points.
These results bear significance when considering that, for the better part of a decade, any debate about the NFL's top quarterback essentially ended with a choice between Brady and Manning. And it's also noteworthy that, as Rodgers' value increases, Manning and Brady continue to perform at their usual peak levels.
Brady led the New England Patriots to an NFL-best 14-2 regular season record in 2010, when he led the league with a 111.0 passer rating and 36 touchdown passes. He's riding an NFL-record streak of 335 regular-season passes without an interception.
Manning, owner of a record four NFL MVP awards, passed for a career-high 4,700 yards last season. Tied with Dan Marino for most career 300-yard games (63), his 54,828 career passing yards are third behind Brett Favre and Marino. And his 11 Pro Bowls tie him with Favre for most by a quarterback. Assuming Manning's rehabilitation from offseason neck surgery continues to progress, he is poised to extend his ironman streak of 208 consecutive starts.
Rodgers, entering his seventh season, must prove consistent over time to approach such levels of achievement. But he could be on his way.
In sync with play-callers
That's the widespread consensus of NFL experts who have seen the California product shake off a draft-day plunge in 2005 (once considered a potential No. 1 overall pick, he fell to the Packers in the 24th slot in the first round), emerge from Favre's shadow and blossom into an efficient triggerman for one of the NFL's most prolific and balanced offenses.
Says NFL Network analyst Jamie Dukes, "Aaron will have a unique opportunity to grow his legend."
Ask Brian Billick, who won a Super Bowl as Baltimore Ravens coach, which quarterback he would want if given a choice upon a return to the coaching ranks.
"It's kind of a Sophie's choice," says Billick, now an analyst for Fox.
He'd take Rodgers.
"What he did last year was just unbelievable," Billick says. "And can you imagine if (star tight end) Jermichael Finley stayed healthy?"
But Billick zeroes in on another reason beneath Rodgers' prowess: maturity in the system. He sees a link connecting Rodgers and two other quarterbacks ranked among the top five slots in the USA TODAY Sports Weekly poll — Drew Brees and Philip Rivers — that he says underscores a trend in the NFL's evolution as a pass-dominant league.
"When you look at the top quarterbacks, there's kind of an interesting dynamic," Billick says. "Brady and Manning are kind of on their own. They're their own offensive coordinators. They pretty much run their offenses.
"The other three have special relationships with their play-callers — all of whom are head coaches. That relationship is so critical. I see (Packers coach) Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers growing together, the way they communicate. Then you see what (New Orleans Saints coach) Sean Payton and (San Diego Chargers coach) Norv Turner have done with systems built around their dominant quarterbacks. That goes beyond coincidence."
Billick says McCarthy, Payton and Turner — and their quarterbacks — benefit from the narrowed focus that is allowed on teams with strong general managers. He says there's been a shift away from coaches being consumed by personnel decisions in addition to football strategy.
"It's become a general manager's league," Billick says. "I like to think of it as the '3 a.m. rule.' What's a head coach thinking about at 3 in the morning? The salary cap? Personnel moves? Or the fullback in the flat on the circle route? Those three guys are able to concentrate more on hands-on coaching, and I think the quarterbacks benefit."
'Offense, offense, offense'
Like Rodgers, Brees and Rivers have the validating data to support such a theory.
Brees, a five-time Pro Bowler, is the only quarterback other than Marino to pass for 4,000 yards and 30 TDs in three consecutive seasons.
Rivers comes off a career-high 4,710-yard season that resulted in his third Pro Bowl selection. He's topped 4,000 yards three years in a row.
The numbers quarterbacks post continue to stagger.
"It shows you where the league is going," grumbles Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis, mindful of the challenge to disrupt quarterback-heavy attacks. "Offense, offense, offense."
The league-wide passer rating last season was the best in NFL history: 84.1.
New standards were also achieved last season with a TD/interception ratio of 1.47:1, and with 22 quarterbacks throwing for more than 3,000 yards.
These statistics prompt Brandt to reflect on a different era.
"There are two quarterbacks in the Hall of Fame — Bob Waterfield and Norm Van Brocklin— who didn't even complete 50% of their passes in college," says Brandt, a longtime Dallas Cowboys personnel chief now serving as an analyst for NFL.com and Sirius Satellite Radio. "The evolution has been unbelievable."
Lewis says that evolution equates to an abundance of passers capable of playing at an elite level on any given Sunday.
"There are no slouches," he says. "Most franchises are putting that cornerstone in their hip pockets. Think of a Drew Brees, a Philip Rivers. … You can go down the line and name 'em."
The best of the next tier?
Billick loves Matt Ryan, the fourth-year Atlanta Falcons quarterback with a penchant for staying cool at crunchtime and delivering last-minute victories. Ryan ranks eighth in the poll.
"The more they can get him in the no-huddle, the better." Billick says. "I think he's Brady-esque."
Brandt is bullish on Josh Freeman, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' face of the future. Big and physical, he is often compared to Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (No. 6) because of his knack for keeping plays alive.
"That's a guy who will keep climbing the list," Brandt says of Freeman, who led the Bucs to 10 wins in 2010.
Dukes mentions the NFL's reigning comeback player of the year. "The wild card is No. 7, Michael Vick," Dukes says. Vick, a four-time Pro Bowler, wears No. 7 and ranked accordingly in the poll after reinventing himself following a two-year hiatus stemming from his role in a dogfighting ring. "He was going to Pro Bowls with the Falcons, but now he's so much more refined."
Vick posted a career-high 100.2 passer rating last season (21 TDs, six picks) and joined Steve Young as the only quarterbacks in league history to post a 100 passer mark in a season while rushing for at least 500 yards.
"If he can continue to mature and build on what he accomplished last year," Dukes says, "he can get in that conversation about the NFL's best quarterback."
But regarding the conversation of the moment, it's tough for Dukes to consider anyone other than the quarterback who topped the poll: Brady.
"He's still the best," Dukes says. "Think about it: 36-4? With those guys? He doesn't have a strong running game, and he hasn't been throwing to people like Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison. But year in and year out he keeps winning."
Brady, indeed, reached 100 career victories fastest of any quarterback during the Super Bowl era, in 131 starts.
"Tom is just such a special player," Dukes added. "He makes everyone around him better. I'll tell you what he is, he's Montana-esque."
That's Montana, as in Super Joe, the Hall of Famer who led the San Francisco 49ers to four Super Bowl victories and is considered perhaps the greatest quarterback yet.
Sounds like another debate waiting to happen.
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