Swiffness!
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Question: So, is Israel going to attack Iran's nuclear facilities before the presidential election on November 6?
Answer: Maybe. But probably not. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak would have ordered a strike already if not for the determined opposition of President Obama. That opposition is undiminished. And Netanyahu and Barak may now be thinking that holding off -- agreeing to Obama's wishes, in other words -- may buy them some favor with the President, should he be reelected. This runs counter to an earlier belief, that an Israeli attack before the election would put Obama in a box, that he would have to support Israel for fear of alienating its supporters in America.
Question: According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran is moving more and more centrifuges to the underground, and highly fortified, Fordow site. Didn't Ehud Barak mean exactly this when he said that Iran is entering a "zone of immunity," which is to say, the point at which Israeli bombs couldn't reach the centrifuges anymore?
Answer: Yes.
Question: So?
Answer: The only thing more important to Ehud Barak (apart from Ehud Barak) than shutting down the Fordow facility is keeping Israel (and himself) on the right side of the American president, and the American people. More than Netanyahu, he is worried about the fallout from an Israeli attack, specifically, attacks directed by Iran against American troops and installations. Though Barak also believes that Iran would most likely make the calculation that it can't afford to strike at America in the wake of an Israeli attack, because the U.S., unlike Israel, has sufficient military power to threaten the security of the regime. Barak is probably correct in this analysis, but it's not a sure thing.
Question: Are you saying that Barak is more cautious than Netanyahu?
No, not necessarily. Contrary to the opinion of some people in Israel, neither man is crazy. They understand the consequences of launching, and of not launching. Barak has a better understanding of the tactical and strategic consequences of launching an attack (and the consequences of not launching an attack) and Netanyahu is gripped by the historical consequences of a nuclear Iran. But Netanyahu also has political considerations restraining him. Indyk: "Bibi is facing his own election, probably early next year, and he cannot know what the Israeli public reaction will be to the potential for 500 civilian casualties, capital flight, Tel Aviv under rocket attack, Ben Gurion closed down, etc. He is not a gambler with his own political fate." [I've talked to Israeli ppl who swear it'd be political suicide for him]
Question: If the Israelis don't attack before November 6, will they ever attack?
Answer: Maybe, or maybe not. The Atlantic War Dial, which reflects the thinking of 22 experts on the issue (including yours truly), puts the chance of an Israeli, or American, attack in the next year at 40 percent. I've been going back and forth on Twitter with Laura Rozen, who argues that if the Israelis were to do this, they would have to do it immediately after November 6, because weather conditions wouldn't permit a surprise attack (yes, I know, this is the most discussed surprise attack in history) in the winter months. What is true is that we don't know more than we know -- we don't even know if Ehud Barak secretly believes that it is too late for an Israeli preventive strike, given developments at Fordow.
http://www.theatlantic.com/internat...ions-about-iran-israel-bibi-and-obama/261906/
Answer: Maybe. But probably not. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak would have ordered a strike already if not for the determined opposition of President Obama. That opposition is undiminished. And Netanyahu and Barak may now be thinking that holding off -- agreeing to Obama's wishes, in other words -- may buy them some favor with the President, should he be reelected. This runs counter to an earlier belief, that an Israeli attack before the election would put Obama in a box, that he would have to support Israel for fear of alienating its supporters in America.
Question: According to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran is moving more and more centrifuges to the underground, and highly fortified, Fordow site. Didn't Ehud Barak mean exactly this when he said that Iran is entering a "zone of immunity," which is to say, the point at which Israeli bombs couldn't reach the centrifuges anymore?
Answer: Yes.
Question: So?
Answer: The only thing more important to Ehud Barak (apart from Ehud Barak) than shutting down the Fordow facility is keeping Israel (and himself) on the right side of the American president, and the American people. More than Netanyahu, he is worried about the fallout from an Israeli attack, specifically, attacks directed by Iran against American troops and installations. Though Barak also believes that Iran would most likely make the calculation that it can't afford to strike at America in the wake of an Israeli attack, because the U.S., unlike Israel, has sufficient military power to threaten the security of the regime. Barak is probably correct in this analysis, but it's not a sure thing.
Question: Are you saying that Barak is more cautious than Netanyahu?
No, not necessarily. Contrary to the opinion of some people in Israel, neither man is crazy. They understand the consequences of launching, and of not launching. Barak has a better understanding of the tactical and strategic consequences of launching an attack (and the consequences of not launching an attack) and Netanyahu is gripped by the historical consequences of a nuclear Iran. But Netanyahu also has political considerations restraining him. Indyk: "Bibi is facing his own election, probably early next year, and he cannot know what the Israeli public reaction will be to the potential for 500 civilian casualties, capital flight, Tel Aviv under rocket attack, Ben Gurion closed down, etc. He is not a gambler with his own political fate." [I've talked to Israeli ppl who swear it'd be political suicide for him]
Question: If the Israelis don't attack before November 6, will they ever attack?
Answer: Maybe, or maybe not. The Atlantic War Dial, which reflects the thinking of 22 experts on the issue (including yours truly), puts the chance of an Israeli, or American, attack in the next year at 40 percent. I've been going back and forth on Twitter with Laura Rozen, who argues that if the Israelis were to do this, they would have to do it immediately after November 6, because weather conditions wouldn't permit a surprise attack (yes, I know, this is the most discussed surprise attack in history) in the winter months. What is true is that we don't know more than we know -- we don't even know if Ehud Barak secretly believes that it is too late for an Israeli preventive strike, given developments at Fordow.
http://www.theatlantic.com/internat...ions-about-iran-israel-bibi-and-obama/261906/
