RETAIL IMPACT MOSTLY MUTED
Poor families might economize by squeezing spending on other goods and using the savings to supplement their food stamps. Recent declines in gasoline prices should provide an offset for now, said Scott Mushkin, a senior retail analyst at Wolfe Research.
"They still need to eat," said Mushkin.
"Customers may shift to spending more of their own cash on food and less cash on other things," said Keith Dailey, a spokesman for Kroger Co, the largest U.S. supermarket operator.
But Dennis Eidson, president of Spartan Stores Inc, a regional chain based in Grand Rapids, Michigan, said the SNAP cut would be meaningful for sales. "We're a little concerned about the food stamp cut, I can tell you that," Eidson said.
Fruits and vegetables, grain products, meats, and dairy products comprise almost 90 percent of the food that SNAP households buy, according to the CBPP.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc, the discount giant that has the largest grocery sales in America, might fare better, U.S. Chief Executive Bill Simon said when analysts asked this month about the upcoming reduction.
"When the benefits expanded, our market share actually went down," said Simon, referring to 2009. "And so, our view is when price becomes more important ... we're more relevant."
The 2009 stimulus bill increased food stamps by an average of 18 percent, or around $24 a person, and it gave an immediate jolt to the economy. Benefits are spent quickly, and according to Moody's Analytics, in a weak economy every dollar increase in SNAP benefits generates about $1.70 in economic activity.
Most people who receive SNAP benefits live in households with very low income - about $8,800 a year on average in 2010, according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office.
As of July, the most recent figures available, 47.6 million were receiving food stamps, up 1.7 percent on the year. Enrollment has been above 47 million for the past 12 months.
MORE CUTS EXPECTED IN NEW FARM BILL
More food stamp cuts - likely focused on reducing the number of beneficiaries - are expected to be included in the new U.S. farm bill, now in its final stage of preparation.
Conservative Republicans in the House of Representatives passed a bill in September that aimed to tighten SNAP eligibility standards and end benefits for nearly 5 percent of recipients, cutting some $39 billion over 10 years.
On Wednesday, negotiators from the House and Senate will start to hammer out a compromise version of the bill. Food stamps typically account for about 75 percent of money in the farm bill.
House Majority Leader Eric Cantor was the most prominent sponsor of the Republican-backed food stamp bill, which would shorten the time able-bodied adults without dependents could collect aid, and end a provision that allowed people with larger household assets to get food stamps.
Cantor has termed the program as it now stands an unaffordable burden on middle-class families that can be pruned while still helping "those who truly need it."
Some 1.7 million able-bodied adults would lose benefits through a stricter enforcement of work requirements that Republicans propose, the CBO estimates. Many states currently have waivers in place because of high jobless rates. The budget office also estimates that 2.1 million people would lose benefits if limits on assets are tightened.
"By reforming food stamps, we will save the program for the truly needy," said Virginia Foxx, a Republican Congresswoman from North Carolina. "An overextended, unchecked SNAP program won't be capable of serving the citizens it's purposed to help."
The Democratic-run Senate has proposed $4.5 billion in savings over a decade by closing a loophole. A small-farm group said cuts of $8 billion to $12 billion might in the end be palatable to both the House and the Senate.
President Barack Obama has warned against heavy cuts to food stamps. House Democrats have voted en bloc against large cuts. And 39 Democratic senators sent a letter to farm bill negotiators this week opposing "eligibility changes designed to erect new barriers to participation" in SNAP.
Michael Tanner, author of a Cato Institute report that calls for converting food stamps into a block grant program run by the states, said lawmakers should overhaul the program's rules. "These are a much better way to reform the program than just playing with the number," Tanner said.
(Reporting by Charles Abbott in Washington and Lisa Baertlein in Los Angeles, editing by Ros Krasny and Nick Zieminski)
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/30/us-usa-nutrition-food-stamps-idUSBRE99T0ZI20131030