I have been doing a breakdown of this game once I learned we were playing the Chargers. This game will be a lot closer than everyone thinks and we have a lot of favorable match-ups in this one.
1. Strength of Schedule: Jets = 52% Opponent win %, Chargers = 45%
-The Chargers played 6 games against teams picking in the 10 of the draft (Raiders x2, Chiefs x2, Cleveland, and Washington)
-The AFC West was the AFC's weakest Division
2. The Chargers lost 2 games to teams that play a 3-4 blitzing scheme (Ravens + Steelers)
-The Browns who also play a 3-4, only lost by 7
-Rivers threw 2 picks against the Ravens Defense
3. The Chargers are 10th in Total Offense - 5th in passing, 31st in rushing vs. the Jets who's defense is 1st overall - 1st against the pass, 8th against the run
-The Chargers have not had a 100 yard rusher in 1 game all year
4. The Chargers Defense is 20th against the run giving up 120 yards per game, the Jets Rushing offense is 1st - 172 ypg
5. The Chargers may be 20th against the run, but they give up 4.5 yards per carry to their opponent.
-4.5 yards per carry is what the Jets offense averages and that stat is 3rd best in the league
-This means that tho the chargers only give up 120 ypg on the ground (20th), they are actually worse than you think at defending it. They merely force teams into passing more by getting ahead, which keeps the rushing numbers lower than they should be.
6. The Chargers receivers average the following Yards per catch: Floyd + Jackson = 17.2 and neither has more than 70 catches
-this means that the Chargers rely on big plays in the passing game and lack ball control; they are a quick strike team
-the Jets defense does not give up many big plays
-Gates has the most catches with 79 and he averages 14.6 a catch - I believe he is the X-factor in this game for the Jets
7. The Chargers opponents have passed more than they have 514 vs. 534
-this means the Chargers get up quickly and force teams to catch up by passing, which evens out the time of possession to 30 min each team
8. The Chargers Defense is 23rd in the league in 3rd down conversions, giving up a 1st down 40.4% of the time
-they have trouble forcing 3rd and longs because of their rushing defense
9. The Jets are 9-0 when Mark Sanchez does not throw an Interception
-Keep in mind the Jets were -2 in the Turnover Differential for the season and went 9-7 (8-0 when Mark throws 0 INTs)
Okay let me begin my analysis of this by saying, that we are playing with HOUSE MONEY. Win or Lose, this season was still SUCCESSFUL with a ROOKIE QB and ROOKIE HEAD COACH. Let's NOT LOOK AHEAD, and HOPE for a Jets win but not EXPECT one. The Chargers are a Very good team and have a ton of talent.
HOWEVER....
The Chargers record appears to be inflated by a WEAK schedule and division. Who have they really played? They had 6 guaranteed wins on their schedule. Did the Jets? No
The Chargers can not run the ball, and can not STOP the run. Their 20th against the run stat would be a lot worse if they did not jump out to leads and force them to pass as they give up 4.5 yards per carry which is very high. We are the best team running the ball. If we can prevent the big play, and keep them from getting a lead larger than 7 or 10 at anypoint, we should have no problem controlling the clock.
The 2 keys are as follow:
1. The Chargers X-factor is Antonio Gates. I hope that after the Tony Gonzalez incident we will learn not to give him a free release at the line. Vincent Jackson should be eliminated by Revis, so its up to Sheppard and Lowery to stop Floyd. We need Rhodes to show up. If we can stop Gates, I think we can do what we did to Drew Brees to Rivers.
2. Mark Sanchez. If Mark does not have to pass more than 20 times and does NOT turn the ball over, we have a great shot at winning. If he doesn't have to pass more than 20 times that means the game is out of his hands in a hostile environment and we are controlling the ball on the ground. With the number one rushing team and number one defense against a team that can not stop the run, no Turnovers bodes well. If we can execute the offensive gameplan we did against the Bengals, we have a good shot at winning.
This game should not be a blow out. No one is going to give the Jets a chance, but honestly this is the best matchup the Jets could have gotten. The Charger's QB is great but not named Peyton Manning. If Mark doesn't turn the ball over and we do what we know what we can do on the ground, don't be surprised if we are playing on championship Sunday.
But let's take this one game at time. I hope Mark relaxes and watches a ton of film this week. Mark does NOT have to play special, he needs to play WITHIN himself. A boring 10-15 day for 100 yards and no INTs with 170 yards on the ground would put us in a really good position. It should be a good game. Let's go Jets! It's been a great season so far and we are proud of you, but we believe!!!!
