Alvarez with edge despite voter unhappiness with her, Tribune poll finds
Despite widespread dissatisfaction over her job performance and handling of the Laquan McDonald shooting, Cook County State's Attorney Anita Alvarez still holds an edge against her two Democratic challengers, a new Chicago Tribune poll shows.
Still, the survey found a sizable number of undecided voters ahead of the March 15 primary election, and much of the electorate unfamiliar with challengers Kim Foxx and Donna More. That leaves the rivals room to grow support as they try to keep the McDonald case at the forefront of their campaigns against Alvarez, who's seeking a third term.
Alvarez, known by nearly all voters, had 34 percent support, while Foxx had 27 percent and More had 12 percent, the poll showed. An additional 26 percent said they backed another candidate or were undecided.
The poll of 968 registered Cook County Democratic voters was conducted by Research America Inc. using live landline and cellphone interviews from Jan. 20-28. It has an error margin of 3.2 percentage points.
In office since late 2008, Alvarez has been in the spotlight for months over her handling of the McDonald case.
White Chicago police Officer Jason Van Dyke shot the African-American teen 16 times in October 2014. Alvarez did not file murder charges until 400 days later — in late November, hours before a court-ordered release of police dashboard camera footage of the shooting.
The video showed Van Dyke shot McDonald as the 17-year-old walked away down the middle of a stretch of Pulaski Road on the Southwest Side. The footage was sharply at odds with written police reports of the incident that said McDonald lunged at officers with a knife.
Alvarez defended what critics contended was a lengthy delay in charging Van Dyke, saying the standards for prosecuting a police officer under rules allowing the use of deadly force were far more complicated than dealing with an ordinary citizen involved in a shooting.
Moreover, she has said her office had been working with the U.S. attorney's office, which was conducting its own investigation into the case, with plans for both state and federal prosecutors to jointly issue their findings. Alvarez said she decided to go ahead and file charges herself and make the announcement earlier than planned out of concern for "public safety" ahead of the video's release.
Critics called on Alvarez to resign, but in December she said "there's no way that I would ever even consider resigning," casting critics as politicians with ties to her opponents.
The poll found a large percentage of voters don't accept Alvarez's explanation for her handling of the McDonald case. More than 7 in 10 Democratic voters said they were not very satisfied or not at all satisfied with it. That included 85 percent of black voters, 67 percent of Hispanic voters and 64 percent of white voters.
Of those not accepting Alvarez's explanation, half said they were "not at all satisfied," including 72 percent of black voters, 49 percent of Hispanic voters and 35 percent of white voters.
Only 24 percent of voters said they were at least somewhat satisfied with how she had handled the case, including 32 percent of white voters, 26 percent of Hispanic voters and 10 percent of African-American voters.
The challengers in the contest are trying to capitalize on dissatisfaction with Alvarez over the case.
Foxx, a former prosecutor and chief of staff to County Board President Toni Preckwinkle, launched a radio ad featuring news reports about the McDonald shooting as an announcer says Foxx is the only candidate who can "fix" a broken system. Preckwinkle has worked hard to promote Foxx, including helping her win slating by the county Democratic organization after it initially had declined to endorse in the contest last summer.
More, a former county and federal prosecutor and Illinois Gaming Board attorney now in private practice, is running cable TV ads. One spot features a newspaper headline about the McDonald case that refers to "justice delayed" as an announcer says Alvarez "must go."
Overall, half of voters in the poll disapproved of Alvarez job performance, while 30 percent approved and 20 percent had no opinion. White voters were split on the question, while 68 percent of black voters disapproved as did 47 percent of Hispanic voters. The error margin for racial and ethnic subgroups is 5.7 percentage points.
Despite the low job approval rating, Alvarez held a 7-percentage-point lead largely due to white and Hispanic voters. Alvarez got 44 percent support among whites and 39 percent among Hispanics, but just 16 percent among African Americans.
Foxx, meanwhile, was backed by 40 percent of black voters, a quarter of white voters and 18 percent of Hispanic voters. More was backed by 18 percent of Hispanic voters, 14 percent of black voters and 8 percent of white voters.
The race remains very fluid — 26 percent of the overall vote remains undecided, including 30 percent of black voters, and 24 percent each among white and Hispanic voters.
Still, Foxx and More have their work cut out for them in the six weeks until Election Day. More than 4 in 10 voters said they had never heard of Foxx, including more than a third of African-American voters, a key constituency for her campaign. Among the 57 percent who had heard of Foxx, few had an impression of her — 37 percent had no opinion, with 16 percent favorable and 4 percent unfavorable.
Half of the voters surveyed had never heard of More. Of the half who had heard of her, 41 percent didn't know enough about her to say whether they had a favorable or unfavorable impression.
The poll found 42 percent of voters had an unfavorable impression of Alvarez, while 26 percent viewed her favorably and 27 percent had no opinion.