Libya should've been a win for Romney but instead he threw a Pick Six and Obama ethered him.
kingblaze you a week late wit dat Obama doom cuz, 538 (the ONLY election barometer that matters imo) already got Obama's chance of winning back up to 70% and rising after an all-time nadir of 61% on the 12th (was at 87% before the debate).
putting aside that National Polls are irrelevant compared to swing state polls, Nate Silver also ethered Gallup badly today:
The Gallup poll is accounted for in the forecast model, along with all other state and national surveys.
However, its results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case.
Other national polls show a race that is roughly tied on average, while state polls continue to indicate a narrow advantage of about two points for President Obama in tipping-point states like Ohio. The forecast has Mr. Obama as a narrow favorite in the election largely on the basis of the state polls. (You can read my thoughts here on the challenge of reconciling state and national poll data.)
Our database contains records from 136 distinct pollsters that have released at least one state or national survey at some point in this election cycle. Of those, 53 are active enough to have issued at least one survey since Oct. 1.
Usually, when a poll is an outlier relative to the consensus, its results turn out badly.
You do not need to look any further than Gallup’s track record over the past two election cycles to find a demonstration of this.
To be clear, I would not recommend that you literally just disregard the Gallup poll. You should consider it — but consider it in context.
The context is that its most recent results differ substantially from the dozens of other state and national polls about the campaign.
It’s much more likely that Gallup is wrong and everyone else is right than the other way around.
Gallup vs. The World