2017 NFL QB Tier Rankings
This marks my fourth annual NFL QB Tier rankings, featuring an expert panel that was our largest one yet. Fifty league insiders placed 36 QBs into one of five tiers, with Tier 1 reserved for the best and Tier 5 for the worst.
Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady were again the only unanimous Tier 1 selections, but they had fresh company in the top grouping. Colin Kaepernick, though unsigned, came in ahead of eight potential starters. There was also some drama, as the 49th and 50th ballots collected determined which tiers Matt Ryan and Dak Prescott fell into.
The higher the tier, the less help the quarterback needs to be effective, especially when circumstances inevitably call for him to flourish in pure passing situations -- those highly pressurized times when handing off or running with the ball do not cut it, and the quarterback must win from the pocket for his team to have a chance.
The breakdown of our 50 voters this year: Nine general managers, six pro personnel directors, five other executives, five head coaches, seven offensive coordinators, six defensive coordinators, five defensive assistants, three analytics directors, two quarterbacks coaches and two national scouts.
Rookie quarterbacks have been excluded from this file, due to a lack of information for our panel to judge.
A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. Expertly handles pure-pass situations.
The Atlanta Falcons had just taken a 28-3 lead over the Patriots in the Super Bowl when a text-message reply came through from one of my regular QB Tiers voters.
"Nothing is over!" the text read. "28-3 turns game into pure pass. #12 will close this gap -- may not be enough, but gap will close. Quinn better get his marker board out on the sideline cuz he's gonna run outta pass D calls."
The record-setting comeback Tom Brady led improved his record to 16-12 (.571) during the past five seasons when the Patriots' opponents exceeded 24 points. Teams lose those games 80 percent of the time. Derek Carr (7-15, .318) is second and Matt Ryan (12-26, .316) third among QBs with at least 32 starts since 2012.
"To be honest with you, Brady probably needs to have his own category," a former GM said. "Brady, above the neck, is just way ahead of everybody, and his competitiveness is every bit as good as [Aaron] Rodgers' competitiveness. His toughness is every bit as good, if not better. For all the GQ stuff, the guy is a blue-collar quarterback and his ability to process, his smarts, his poise are just off the charts."
Earlier this summer, a separate poll of 10 longtime NFL coaches and personnel people identified Brady as the NFL's best quarterback of the past 40 years. Rodgers was fifth.
"At one time in the league, I thought I'd never see anybody better than Joe Montana," a QB Tiers voter said. "Joe had his own category. This guy [Brady] is like that, if not better."
The ability to carry their teams and strike fear into opponents when the game becomes pure pass separates Tier 1 quarterbacks from the rest.
"To me, that is the whole deal," a defensive coordinator said. "Some guys are system guys, meaning they have to run their whole offense -- run game and pass game -- to be effective. If you make them one-dimensional and they have to try to win it at the end, to me, that is what separates them."
The Packers ran dangerously low on running backs and defensive backs last season, putting pressure on Rodgers to carry them. Carry them, he did. Rodgers tossed 15 touchdown passes without an interception during a six-game winning streak to end the season. He then led Green Bay to the NFC Championship Game. No quarterback in the game possesses his combination of pure passing ability and athleticism.
"His ability to improvise or make plays when the defense is perfectly executed is unique," a personnel director said. "I'm not a big fan of the 'arm talent' term, but some of the throws Rodgers makes, even when you are playing against him, you are just like, 'Holy s---, what do you do?' He is very frustrating for a defense because you play everything exactly right and he still just makes a 'holy s--- play' and it's demoralizing."
While Rodgers dazzles with his uncommon athleticism, a veteran defensive coach said the quarterback's pre-snap recognition is exceptional.
"If he can figure [the play] out, you can forget about it," this coach said. "And then, unless it is third-and-a-mile, there is not a third down he doesn't think he can convert. If you three-man rush him, he is going to extend plays and let guys uncover and he can put the ball in tight windows."
An offensive coordinator said he thought Rodgers had the quickest release in the game, calling Rodgers "scary" for his ability to throw with accuracy and velocity from awkward angles.
"A lot of quarterbacks are pretty good sitting back in the pocket, but the first or second read disappears and they break down," a personnel director said. "With him, he can extend the play and do pretty miraculous things. Last year, the talent around him struggled, but he was still able to play some pretty elite games even after he lost his receivers and didn't have a running game."
The 50th and final ballot collected broke a tie between Roethlisberger and Drew Brees for the third overall spot. Roethlisberger checks several of the Tier 1 boxes. He can carry the Steelers' offense and win playoff games doing so. The question was whether Roethlisberger did these things consistently enough to earn the highest respect.
"There is nothing that is not a [Tier] 1 about that guy," an offensive coordinator argued. "He is awesome. I heard that at their quarterback meetings, they sit and talk about golf, and he just goes out there and he is just competing and winging it and he kills everybody every week. He saves plays with his feet, he moves around and it is never too big for him."
A defensive coordinator who placed Roethlisberger in the top tier cursed six times in his first six sentences when asked about the Steelers' quarterback. Those were curse words born of respect from years of playing against Roethlisberger. "I am looking at this and saying if you put it on his shoulders every time, I think he can consistently win," this defensive coordinator said. "If you said, 'All right, Ben, we need you to throw it 55 times this game, as a defensive coordinator, I'm thinking, 'F---.'"
That might have been what the Broncos were thinking in Week 15 of the 2015 season, which was the last time Roethlisberger attempted that many passes. Denver owned one of the greatest defenses in recent NFL history that season. Roethlisberger completed 40 of 55 attempts for 380 yards and three scores as Pittsburgh overcame a 27-13 halftime deficit to win the game. It was a Tier 1 performance, for sure.
Still, a defensive-minded head coach said he thought Roethlisberger was much better when asked to throw the ball 25-30 times in a more balanced offense, whereas Brady could be effective more consistently without keeping defenses guessing. A defensive coordinator who placed Roethlisberger in the second tier said Roethlisberger and Cam Newton are freelancers for better and worse, and that Roethlisberger is simply better than Newton at it.
"He still carries that team when he is in there," an offensive coordinator said, "but I would have to say he is a [Tier] 2. Some weeks he is a 1, some weeks he is a 2. For me, that kind of qualifies him as a 2. I think when he has got extremely talented people around him, he is a good player, but he doesn't lift the level of the team all the time."
