Atlanta Hawks (44-38)
Upsetting Orlando in the first round of the playoffs last season could be a significant psychological marker for the Hawks, who otherwise seem unenviably frozen into being a very good -- but a long way from great -- team. They have $58 million on the books for five players this season -- Joe Johnson ($18 million), Josh Smith ($12.5M), Al Horford ($12M), Kirk Hinrich ($8.1M) and Marvin Williams ($8.05M) -- but only Williams' deal and the top third of Johnson's salary seem like wasted money or bad value. The rest of the roster is necessarily threadbare, although Jason Collins is a tremendous defender against Dwight Howard and a few other big men, and Tracy McGrady, playing for the veteran's minimum, should ease the loss of Jamal Crawford. Atlanta's hopes of getting to the next level rest with the scant chance that third-year guard Jeff Teague blossoms into a star.
13
Philadelphia 76ers (41-41)
Another young team that is returning its entire player rotation, the Sixers' decisions to re-sign Thaddeus Young and not to amnesty Elton Brand demonstrate a commitment to build on last season's 14-game improvement. Among the reasons for optimism: the ongoing maturation of 21-year-old point guard Jrue Holiday; indications that swingman Evan Turner is primed to begin fulfilling his promise after a disappointing rookie season; and early signs that No. 16 pick Nikola Vucevic can immediately help alleviate Philadelphia's weakness at center.
14
Indiana Pacers (37-45)
The Pacers are putting together pieces throughout the organization: former Portland GM Kevin Pritchard as director of player personnel; Phil Jackson's onetime right-hand man Brian Shaw as assistant coach; two-time All-Star David West as the new power forward; and ex-Spurs sixth man George Hill returning home to do the same for Indiana. The team also still has plenty of cap room, a burgeoning shutdown perimeter defender in second-year swingman Paul George and young talent at center (Roy Hibbert) and point guard (Darren Collison). If longtime team leader Danny Granger effectively circumscribes his on-court role and Hibbert improves his shot selection toward scoring in the paint, the Pacers could be dangerous.
15
Portland Trail Blazers (48-34)
Brandon Roy is gone and Greg Oden is, per usual, at least temporarily out of service. Still, the Blazers soldier on, picking up veteran role players like high-scoring combo guard Jamal Crawford and wizened center Kurt Thomas, who somehow makes a virtue out of his immobility. Coach Nate McMillan, who continues to run a tight ship while owner Paul Allen confines his bloodletting to the front office, will once again test the diligence of opposing defenses by milking the shot clock. With Roy's retirement and Andre Miller's departure in exchange for Raymond Felton, McMillan will break in a new backcourt and rely on the hard-nosed skills of swingmen Wes Matthews, Gerald Wallace and especially Nic Batum, whose improvement would go a long way toward clinching a playoff berth.
16
Houston Rockets (43-39)
If the Rockets had indeed been able to acquire Pau Gasol and follow up by signing Nene, then it would have made more sense to switch from Rick Adelman, with his motion offense and high-post sets, to new coach Kevin McHale, who prefers a more pound-the-paint approach to scoring. But after the Gasol trade was blocked and Nene re-signed with Denver, McHale's first priority is to develop a center from among Jordan Hill, Patrick Patterson and Hasheem Thabeet. (Last year's starter, 6-6 fire hydrant Chuck Hayes, signed with Sacramento but had the contract voided after failing a physical.) The Rockets still have weapons galore from an offense that ranked fourth in efficiency and third in points last season. But it will be up to McHale (and assistant Kelvin Sampson) to generate enough stops for Houston to slip into the playoffs.
17
Orlando Magic (52-30)
Don't expect Dwight Howard to stint on his effort during what is shaping up as his final stretch in Orlando. But team chemistry obviously corrodes when your superstar demands to be traded. And with Gilbert Arenas having been amnestied and Hedo Turkoglu being an albatross because of his contract, it's fair to conclude that GM Otis Smith's blockbuster trades last season didn't pan out. Which of the Magic's two combustible temperaments will blow first: Howard, who has precious little frontcourt beef on the roster to support him, getting baited and whistled for a slew of technicals and flagrants; or coach Stan Van Gundy, who, after four straight seasons of at least 52 wins, must now cope with the circus surrounding Howard's seemingly inevitable departure?
18
New Orleans Hornets (46-36)
The Hornets not only sacrificed the best player in franchise history by trading Chris Paul under duress, but they also lost their second-best player of the last five years when David West left via free agency. The package for Paul may be superior to what the Jazz got for Deron Williams (who has no history of knee injuries) last season: a lights-out shooter in Eric Gordon; a probable lottery pick via the Timberwolves; skillful big man Chris Kaman playing for a new contract; and, the hidden gem in the deal, raw but talented forward Al-Farouq Aminu, exactly the sort of player a defensive-minded coach like Monty Williams can develop. But the drop-off at point guard from Paul to Jarrett Jack is still steep enough to warrant against the Hornets returning to the playoffs.
19
Phoenix Suns (40-42)
The old people who go to retire in Arizona have exquisite role models in Steve Nash and Grant Hill on how to stay mentally positive and physically spry. Seemingly everyone but the 37-year-old Nash himself has clamored for him to be traded to a more viable contender these last two years; meanwhile, the 39-year-old Hill spurned similarly high-powered teams to re-sign with Phoenix. But the quintessential point guard and the ageless lockdown defender need more than above-average center Marcin Gortat to get back to the postseason. Channing Frye, Mickael Pietrus and especially Robin Lopez all regressed last season, as Phoenix finished 25th in defensive efficiency and lacked a go-to scorer -- after Jason Richardson's early-season departure, Nash's 14.7 points per game (accomplished efficiently with a 60.1 true shooting percentage) led the team.
20
Milwaukee Bucks (35-47)
The Bucks have a bevy of glue-guy forwards and took two more in the draft. But their season will rise or fall on the three players at the other positions. Point guard Brandon Jennings has been more flash than substance in his two years, and he took a slight step backward last season. He could be pushed by Shaun Livingston and/or Beno Udrih. Center Andrew Bogut led the NBA in blocks but was clearly hampered by injuries while executing his multidimensional offensive skills. The Bucks aren't playoff contenders until he returns to the prime form of two years ago. And wild-card shooting guard Stephen Jackson has a stubborn streak and competitive zeal that should ensure a love-hate relationship with his similarly temperamental coach, Scott Skiles.
21
Sacramento Kings (24-58)
The Kings are an increasingly talented but complicated jigsaw puzzle. How do you devise an offense and apportion touches and a pecking order among a penetrate-first point guard who can move like a locomotive through the lane (Tyreke Evans); a talented big man who fought with a teammate who denied him the final shot last season (DeMarcus Cousins); and a hot-shooting rookie whose long-range prowess made him a folk hero in college (Jimmer Fredette)? Oh, and don't forget swingman Marcus Thornton, who may be the most potent scorer in the bunch. The Kings haven't won more than 25 games in any of the last three seasons. Losing stolid defender Chuck Hayes to a heart irregularity hurts, but with recent additions like high-motor forward J.J. Hickson and veteran swingman John Salmons added to the names already called, Sacramento can take a big leap forward if it can refine the culture and begin solving the puzzle.
22
Minnesota Timberwolves (17-65)
Just the other day I had the Wolves finishing behind the Jazz in my Northwest Division preview. But after watching poised rookies Ricky Rubio and Derrick Williams team with a newly buff Kevin Love to spread the floor and hang 117 points on a Scott Skiles defense, I'm jumping to a different conclusion. New coach Rick Adelman still has a long way to go in teaching this roster -- laden with youth and chronic underachievers -- how to play quality defense. But long-suffering Wolves fans have genuine reasons to be hopeful and excited.
23
Golden State Warriors (36-46)
The Warriors pursued a number of logical, big-name free agents and trade targets -- Tyson Chandler, Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan, who signed a four-year, $42.7 million offer sheet that the Clippers matched -- and came up empty. Then the new ownership overreached, paying Kwame Brown $7 million to play center this season when it is already doling out $9 million for Andris Biedrins to do the same thing. Add in the $69 million owed to power forward David Lee through 2016 and there is an expensive logjam in front of last year's No. 6 pick, Ekpe Udoh, who is already Golden State's best frontcourt defender and needs minutes to develop the rest of his game. Meanwhile, in the backcourt for rookie coach Mark Jackson, the team presses on with the all-offense, no-defense redundancy of Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis.
Upsetting Orlando in the first round of the playoffs last season could be a significant psychological marker for the Hawks, who otherwise seem unenviably frozen into being a very good -- but a long way from great -- team. They have $58 million on the books for five players this season -- Joe Johnson ($18 million), Josh Smith ($12.5M), Al Horford ($12M), Kirk Hinrich ($8.1M) and Marvin Williams ($8.05M) -- but only Williams' deal and the top third of Johnson's salary seem like wasted money or bad value. The rest of the roster is necessarily threadbare, although Jason Collins is a tremendous defender against Dwight Howard and a few other big men, and Tracy McGrady, playing for the veteran's minimum, should ease the loss of Jamal Crawford. Atlanta's hopes of getting to the next level rest with the scant chance that third-year guard Jeff Teague blossoms into a star.
13
Philadelphia 76ers (41-41)
Another young team that is returning its entire player rotation, the Sixers' decisions to re-sign Thaddeus Young and not to amnesty Elton Brand demonstrate a commitment to build on last season's 14-game improvement. Among the reasons for optimism: the ongoing maturation of 21-year-old point guard Jrue Holiday; indications that swingman Evan Turner is primed to begin fulfilling his promise after a disappointing rookie season; and early signs that No. 16 pick Nikola Vucevic can immediately help alleviate Philadelphia's weakness at center.
14
Indiana Pacers (37-45)
The Pacers are putting together pieces throughout the organization: former Portland GM Kevin Pritchard as director of player personnel; Phil Jackson's onetime right-hand man Brian Shaw as assistant coach; two-time All-Star David West as the new power forward; and ex-Spurs sixth man George Hill returning home to do the same for Indiana. The team also still has plenty of cap room, a burgeoning shutdown perimeter defender in second-year swingman Paul George and young talent at center (Roy Hibbert) and point guard (Darren Collison). If longtime team leader Danny Granger effectively circumscribes his on-court role and Hibbert improves his shot selection toward scoring in the paint, the Pacers could be dangerous.
15
Portland Trail Blazers (48-34)
Brandon Roy is gone and Greg Oden is, per usual, at least temporarily out of service. Still, the Blazers soldier on, picking up veteran role players like high-scoring combo guard Jamal Crawford and wizened center Kurt Thomas, who somehow makes a virtue out of his immobility. Coach Nate McMillan, who continues to run a tight ship while owner Paul Allen confines his bloodletting to the front office, will once again test the diligence of opposing defenses by milking the shot clock. With Roy's retirement and Andre Miller's departure in exchange for Raymond Felton, McMillan will break in a new backcourt and rely on the hard-nosed skills of swingmen Wes Matthews, Gerald Wallace and especially Nic Batum, whose improvement would go a long way toward clinching a playoff berth.
16
Houston Rockets (43-39)
If the Rockets had indeed been able to acquire Pau Gasol and follow up by signing Nene, then it would have made more sense to switch from Rick Adelman, with his motion offense and high-post sets, to new coach Kevin McHale, who prefers a more pound-the-paint approach to scoring. But after the Gasol trade was blocked and Nene re-signed with Denver, McHale's first priority is to develop a center from among Jordan Hill, Patrick Patterson and Hasheem Thabeet. (Last year's starter, 6-6 fire hydrant Chuck Hayes, signed with Sacramento but had the contract voided after failing a physical.) The Rockets still have weapons galore from an offense that ranked fourth in efficiency and third in points last season. But it will be up to McHale (and assistant Kelvin Sampson) to generate enough stops for Houston to slip into the playoffs.
17
Orlando Magic (52-30)
Don't expect Dwight Howard to stint on his effort during what is shaping up as his final stretch in Orlando. But team chemistry obviously corrodes when your superstar demands to be traded. And with Gilbert Arenas having been amnestied and Hedo Turkoglu being an albatross because of his contract, it's fair to conclude that GM Otis Smith's blockbuster trades last season didn't pan out. Which of the Magic's two combustible temperaments will blow first: Howard, who has precious little frontcourt beef on the roster to support him, getting baited and whistled for a slew of technicals and flagrants; or coach Stan Van Gundy, who, after four straight seasons of at least 52 wins, must now cope with the circus surrounding Howard's seemingly inevitable departure?
18
New Orleans Hornets (46-36)
The Hornets not only sacrificed the best player in franchise history by trading Chris Paul under duress, but they also lost their second-best player of the last five years when David West left via free agency. The package for Paul may be superior to what the Jazz got for Deron Williams (who has no history of knee injuries) last season: a lights-out shooter in Eric Gordon; a probable lottery pick via the Timberwolves; skillful big man Chris Kaman playing for a new contract; and, the hidden gem in the deal, raw but talented forward Al-Farouq Aminu, exactly the sort of player a defensive-minded coach like Monty Williams can develop. But the drop-off at point guard from Paul to Jarrett Jack is still steep enough to warrant against the Hornets returning to the playoffs.
19
Phoenix Suns (40-42)
The old people who go to retire in Arizona have exquisite role models in Steve Nash and Grant Hill on how to stay mentally positive and physically spry. Seemingly everyone but the 37-year-old Nash himself has clamored for him to be traded to a more viable contender these last two years; meanwhile, the 39-year-old Hill spurned similarly high-powered teams to re-sign with Phoenix. But the quintessential point guard and the ageless lockdown defender need more than above-average center Marcin Gortat to get back to the postseason. Channing Frye, Mickael Pietrus and especially Robin Lopez all regressed last season, as Phoenix finished 25th in defensive efficiency and lacked a go-to scorer -- after Jason Richardson's early-season departure, Nash's 14.7 points per game (accomplished efficiently with a 60.1 true shooting percentage) led the team.
20
Milwaukee Bucks (35-47)
The Bucks have a bevy of glue-guy forwards and took two more in the draft. But their season will rise or fall on the three players at the other positions. Point guard Brandon Jennings has been more flash than substance in his two years, and he took a slight step backward last season. He could be pushed by Shaun Livingston and/or Beno Udrih. Center Andrew Bogut led the NBA in blocks but was clearly hampered by injuries while executing his multidimensional offensive skills. The Bucks aren't playoff contenders until he returns to the prime form of two years ago. And wild-card shooting guard Stephen Jackson has a stubborn streak and competitive zeal that should ensure a love-hate relationship with his similarly temperamental coach, Scott Skiles.
21
Sacramento Kings (24-58)
The Kings are an increasingly talented but complicated jigsaw puzzle. How do you devise an offense and apportion touches and a pecking order among a penetrate-first point guard who can move like a locomotive through the lane (Tyreke Evans); a talented big man who fought with a teammate who denied him the final shot last season (DeMarcus Cousins); and a hot-shooting rookie whose long-range prowess made him a folk hero in college (Jimmer Fredette)? Oh, and don't forget swingman Marcus Thornton, who may be the most potent scorer in the bunch. The Kings haven't won more than 25 games in any of the last three seasons. Losing stolid defender Chuck Hayes to a heart irregularity hurts, but with recent additions like high-motor forward J.J. Hickson and veteran swingman John Salmons added to the names already called, Sacramento can take a big leap forward if it can refine the culture and begin solving the puzzle.
22
Minnesota Timberwolves (17-65)
Just the other day I had the Wolves finishing behind the Jazz in my Northwest Division preview. But after watching poised rookies Ricky Rubio and Derrick Williams team with a newly buff Kevin Love to spread the floor and hang 117 points on a Scott Skiles defense, I'm jumping to a different conclusion. New coach Rick Adelman still has a long way to go in teaching this roster -- laden with youth and chronic underachievers -- how to play quality defense. But long-suffering Wolves fans have genuine reasons to be hopeful and excited.
23
Golden State Warriors (36-46)
The Warriors pursued a number of logical, big-name free agents and trade targets -- Tyson Chandler, Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan, who signed a four-year, $42.7 million offer sheet that the Clippers matched -- and came up empty. Then the new ownership overreached, paying Kwame Brown $7 million to play center this season when it is already doling out $9 million for Andris Biedrins to do the same thing. Add in the $69 million owed to power forward David Lee through 2016 and there is an expensive logjam in front of last year's No. 6 pick, Ekpe Udoh, who is already Golden State's best frontcourt defender and needs minutes to develop the rest of his game. Meanwhile, in the backcourt for rookie coach Mark Jackson, the team presses on with the all-offense, no-defense redundancy of Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis.
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