So LeBron James vs. Dwyane Wade: Who should be the heat’s closer? Well, if history is any indicator, the better closer is, and always has been, LeBron James. In fact, it’s not even close.
Our team had an opportunity to conduct an analysis of every 4th quarter playoff game that LeBron James and Dwyane Wade have played since they entered the league in 2003. Whether it is the NBA’s Standard Game Winning/Game Tying Shot Metric (shot attempts with the intent to win or tie in the final 24 seconds of a game during which a player’s team is either tied or trails by three or fewer points) or the 5 in 5 Crunch Time Metric (5 minutes left and no team up by more than 5 points), Lebron James has been statistically superior to Dwyane Wade during the closing minutes of playoff games:
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The facts show that LeBron James is 5/12 in career Game Winning/ Game Tying playoff shots while Dwyane Wade is only 1/3. Moreover, James has also made 4 more Game Winning/Game Tying shots total, and generated a higher overall percentage (41.7% vs. 33.3%) in last shot situations.
More significantly however, Lebron has been substantially better during the last 5 minutes of close playoff games while Wade has struggled. Lebron has made nearly twice as many crunchtime baskets, shot 6.5% higher in FG, nearly 10% higher in EFG, and over 9% higher in TS.
Keep in mind, that ’Closer’ and ‘Crunch Time’ can be defined in many ways, and the Game Winning/Game Tying Shot Metric, as well as the 5 in 5 metric, are only two indicators. However, drastic variability in clutch stats outside of these 2 metrics are rare, and the fact that the disparity is so striking, should not be ignored: LeBron James has simply been more consistently clutch in closing situations, despite his poor performance during the 2011 NBA Finals.
So why is Dwyane Wade perceived to be the more clutch player?
The answer is simple: Wade’s remarkable 2006 NBA Finals performance has had an extended shelf life in the minds of NBA fans, and no one can doubt that Wade has historically brought his ‘A’ game at the highest stage – both 2006 and 2011. For this, we cannot completely deny him of his reputation. However, outside of the 2006 Playoffs and 2011 NBA Finals, Wade has actually been abysmal and is 20/62 (32.3%) in Crunch Time situations. In sum, Wade has had to take tremendous number of shots in order to get his points during key moments of a ball game.
So where do Heat fans go from here? I have no idea.
But I do know this much: Lebron James vs. Dwyane Wade = Emotional Arbitrage. Have at it Heat fans. Only good times to come.